Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes, Ersin Tatar" if Ersin Tatar secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round of the Northern Cypriot presidential election. It will resolve to "Yes, Tufan Erhürman" if Tufan Erhürman secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. The market will resolve to "No" if no candidate achieves an absolute majority (over 50%) of the valid votes in the first round, leading to a runoff election.

The official results published by the Supreme Election Council (YSK) of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), accessible via ysk.gov.ct.tr or reputable news organizations reporting on these official results, will be used for resolution.

Background

The next Northern Cypriot presidential election is scheduled for Sunday, October 19, 2025. The president is elected for a five-year term.

Ersin Tatar is the incumbent President, running as an independent candidate, though he is supported by the National Unity Party (UBP) and its coalition partners. He advocates for a two-state solution to the Cyprus problem, aligning with Turkey's official position.

Tufan Erhürman is the leader of the main opposition Republican Turkish Party (CTP) and its presidential candidate. He supports a federal settlement based on United Nations parameters, emphasizing a pragmatic re-engagement strategy and a pro-Europe orientation.

Considerations

There are eight candidates competing in the first round of the election. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes, a runoff election between the top two candidates will be held on Sunday, October 26, 2025.