MANIFOLD
Will liberals lose the 2026 midterms because of Bluesky?
17
Ṁ100Ṁ553
Dec 1
7%
chance

Conditions for YES:

1) Republicans keep the senate and house after the 2026 midterms, AND

2) There is reliable coverage describing how the Bluesky echo chamber led to a Democrat platform unappealing to voters

Market context
US Politics
Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Democratic Party
2024 US Election
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
sold Ṁ51 NO

realizing this is a sucker's bet because even if they WIN there's gonna be opinion pieces in every news outlet about how bluesky lost them the election

Can you elaborate on what "Reliable coverage" means?

@mongo I would like at least 5 competent publications, journalists, analysts or people with significant following to claim that Bluesky was a significant factor in shaping the Democrat platform

must be thoughtful, informed analyses, not e.g. something Jack Posobiec tweets

People are also trading

Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
33% chance
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
88% chance
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
12% chance
Will Democrats regain control of the Senate in 2026?
37% chance
Conditional on which Party wins the Presidency in 2024, will Democrats win the House in 2026?
Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
Democrats gain Senate seats in 2026 midterm elections?
89% chance
Will the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
19% chance
If Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Senate?
45% chance
If this person is the Democratic candidate for U.S. House Illinois District 9, will they win the 2026 midterms?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy