Is there a strong scientific consensus that I'd be able to resolve a Manifold market after another Carrington Event?
5
Jan 1
Yes, there's a strong scientific consensus about whether the US internet would continue to be useable
No, there isn't any such consensus
Other: the above two options aren't adequate
This poll is specifically in order to calibrate resolution criteria for /singer/if-another-carrington-event-happens
If you answer Yes, you believe that there's a consensus on whether or not the internet would survive and society would continue functioning well enough after a Carrington Event level disaster such that I would still be able to resolve Manifold markets at some point after the disaster.
If you answer No, then you believe there isn't any such consensus.
If you answer Other, please leave a comment explaining your belief.
Related:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold have a numerical market type by June 1, 2025?
57% chance
Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)
59% chance
Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?
71% chance
Will any Manifold markets created in 2023 be resolved in 2050 by the original author?
81% chance
Will Manifold significantly improve the reliability of extreme market probabilities before the end of 2024?
8% chance
When will the final resolved market on Manifold be resolved?
Will Manifold implement another way to handle conditional markets before 2026?
65% chance
Will Manifold let AI autoresolve markets by 2028?
47% chance
Will Manifold ever stop misresolving their own markets?
82% chance
Will Manifold still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?
97% chance