Pulling from the Robin Hanson playbook here and going to make a decision to purchase X Premium based on odds across all of the options:

1/ Option 1: Continue organic activity & growth through EOY
https://manifold.markets/sillygoose/will-i-have-more-than-1000-follower
2/ Option 2: Purchase X Premium on July 31
https://manifold.markets/sillygoose/will-i-have-more-than-1000-follower-Iuu5cIRudP
3/ Option 3: Purchase X Premium+ on July 31
https://manifold.markets/sillygoose/will-i-have-more-than-1000-follower-ACcldnhLzz

About
______

Motivation: Until recently, I haven't been very active, but now have a vested interest in really growing my account (I'm a founder, and being able to test ideas in front of an audience is super valuable, not to mention that a following helps with distribution)!

Profile Stats: At the time of authoring this question, my X account (https://x.com/ethanfangg) has 141 followers and follows 86 accounts.

Rules:
- On July 31, I need to pick one option (the markets for the other two, un-picked options, will be cancelled/refunded). I will pick the best performing market, within reason (if the odds between two markets are similar, it seems logical to go with the cheaper option) requiring a 10% advantage for a more expensive option to be chosen over a cheaper one.

- Under no circumstances will I "purchase" followers, attempt a (cringey) "follow-for-follow-back" strategy, etc.

- I must (within reason) conduct my activity on Twitter/X consistently, no matter what option is chosen on July 31

- I must have at least one post/reply/comment per day (with a required minimum of 10 activity events per week)... also very open to suggestions on other requirements to add


Subscription tier descriptions
______________________________

X Premium ($8/month or $84/year): Offering features like a blue checkmark, reduced ads, post editing, longer posts and videos, and access to Grok with enhanced reply prioritization.

X Premium+ ($40/month or $395/year): The highest tier providing all Premium features, a completely ad-free experience, the largest reply boost, access to Radar for trend monitoring, and higher Grok usage limits.