Yesterday on twitter/x, @baileylikemovie tweeted:
This morning, my feed was full of a ton of QTs suggesting all sorts of things including: she hated Sinners (she's explicitly said it's one of her favs), she rooting for it to fail, she's racist, she's excusing racism from The Academy, and various personal attacks. Basically, a lot of people came out of the woodwork to show they can't separate what they want to happen from what will happen and they've projected that onto her.
Will this tweet hold up? Will Sinners walk away from the Oscars in 2026 without a single award?
Pretty obvious resolution criteria:
Yes if Sinners wins nothing.
No if Sinners wins at least one Oscar in any category.
N/A if the Oscars doesn't happen or the world ends or something.
The Oscars ceremony is set for March 15, 2026 - I will adjust the close date accordingly if the date is changed for any reason.
1,000a reminder that a few weeks ago, the news came that Sinners would get a re-release around Halloween and it's confirmed that it will open for a one week run on Oct 30 at select IMAX theatres.
also from Variety:
“Sinners” opened in April to $48 million at the domestic box office, marking the biggest debut for an original film since Jordan Peele’s “Us” opened to $71 million in 2019. Thanks to sterling reviews and glowing word-of-mouth, “Sinners” earned nearly as much in its second weekend as its first, an extreme rarity for a film that didn’t open around the holiday season. The Warner Bros. release has since generated $278 million in North America and $366 million globally against a $90 million budget.
@Ziddletwix I do think it’s more likely than not to win 0 awards (i.e. <50%), so directionally I don’t doubt the tweet. But I think it has reasonable and not-100%-correlated shots at winning several awards (cinematography, score, original screenplay, etc), and those probably add up to closer to 50% than 0%. Awards are ~fairly correlated, but it’s still very common for a handful of movies to each nab a couple. So >30% seems fair to me.