What will be true of the debate: Destiny/Morris v Finkelstein/Rabbani on Lex Fridman [prop bets, free response]
Mar 27
Finkelstein/Rabbani will end with at least 5 more minutes of total talk time than Destiny/Morris
Morris, Finkelstein OR Rabbani average more WPM than Destiny
More than 10 minutes is spent discussing the 2000 Camp David Summit
Finkelstein or Rabbani equate the Israeli government to Hamas

Lex Fridman is hosting another topical Israel v. Palestine debate on his podcast. This time, the sides are:

Palestine: Norm Finkelstein, Mouin Rabbani
Israel: Benny Morris, Steven Bonnell (Destiny)

The debate is being recorded in the next few days and should be published shortly after. This is a market for prop bets on what will happen during the debate.

This market will resolve to the debate itself, not including content of Lex's introduction before the show.

Add your own answers, but please be as clear and objective as possible. I'll likely n/a vibes-based responses or ask for clarity to make them more concrete where possible. Since response costs (now M50 per) have gone up, please feel free to comment below if you want me to add the option for you.

For swift resolution, add proof or timestamps in your comment.

eta: please reply as a comment on the option you want resolved to make resolution clearer.

Response notes:

  • If a response word or phrase is in quotations, that exact word or phrase must be used

  • A mention doesn't require a segment or discussion - if a word/topic/concept is uttered at some point, it will resolve Yes

  • Talk about means there is a notable discussion about the topic. For some this may be interpreted subjectively but at a baseline, talking about a topic means it's not mentioned in passing or glossed over and there's some meaningful exchange of information about the topic.

  • If an option is added for a place, I will accept either the place or a city within. For example, if an option says "someone mentions Ukraine" but only Kyiv enters the conversation, this resolves Yes.

Lex Fridman on YT
Destiny on YT

Norman Finkelstein on YT

I'll extend the close date as necessary but I assume the debate will be up by mid-March at the latest. If for any reason the debate is canceled, the market will N/A.

eta: if for any reason Morris or Rabbani are not involved in this debate, this market is still valid.

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ack sorry everyone it's been a busy few days and this one slipped through the cracks - sorry to leave it so long I'll get this resolved tonight.

The Tantura Controversy is mentioned.

This one is a clear no.

@shankypanky did you listen to the whole thing?, 😭

@RanaG yes of course - why?

@shankypanky tooooo long. How do you do it? 😭

@RanaG I like/prefer longform podcasts, I was looking forward to listening to this, and I wouldn't punish myself by creating (or betting on) prop bets on something I would hate listening to - that would be self sacrificial lol

@shankypanky what's your listening routine? Do you walk? Sit and watch from the 100th floor? Bath?

@RanaG my secret is having a fucked up sense of priorities and everything else pretty much falls into place from there

@shankypanky is that a good thing or a bad thing? 😂

@shankypanky just finished it - it was actually very engaging. I did not expect I would pay attention to all of it. Loved Norm's reactions 😂

The published video on YT is more than 5 hours long


Finkelstein/Rabbani will end with at least 5 more minutes of total talk time than Destiny/Morris

so this (Yes) and the WPM (No) options seem pretty easy to determine intuitively but I'm going to defer to the DGGs @Agh and/or @dgga (or anyone, really) to comment here with evidence when it comes - there's a guy who always posts this kind of info in Reddit? 🧡

@shankypanky yeah I would bet it will get posted in a few days. (should make a market about whether it will 🤔 🤔 ) In the meanwhile I do recommend skimming through the sub, the debate spawned some banger memes

@dgga lmao I saw this one on twitter it's so good 😂😂

@dgga 😂

@shankypanky A rose by any other name would smell as sweet

@dgga I studied Wikipedia to learn more about the names for a rose before reacting to this comment

@shankypanky Mr. Pimpinelli would be proud of you, a true Wiki Warrior following in his footsteps 🥲

@shankypanky ...it seems like no one did make a graph out of these. I have been browsing the sub pretty pretty comprehensively and there hasn't been anything on this front

@dgga probably because it's obvious 😂

Destiny insults Finkelstein directly by calling him a name (for ex. "what you're saying is stupid" doesn't count but "you're an idiot" does)
sold Ṁ6 Destiny insults Fink... YES

no indication of this - Finkelstein was actually super insulting (missed opportunities at adding an option like this in the reverse tbh) but Destiny is always surprisingly composed in debates given he's a bit unhinged in streams lol
I'm resolving this No soon

Someone refers/equates Gaza or Palestine to a concentration camp

I see people betting this up but let's talk about it - the only times this analogy came up was not a reference to the territories as concentration camps but rather that other people say that, and it came from Destiny. he didn't equate Gaza/Palestine to a concentration camp - the reference, in this context, is to people's perspectives and what he considers misnomers, which aren't the same thing.

any other evidence or arguments for a yes resolution? my perspective is that this is a No.

bought Ṁ3 Someone refers/equat... NO

@shankypanky (warning: I'm biased bc I just bought some NO) I think the spirit of the question is that someone would be equating the two, rather than just mentioning it. Imo, the use/mention distinction applies here: Destiny was not saying that statement, just mentioning that others do it.

@jBosc thanks for chiming in - this is also my perspective. it's not a reference to the territories as a concentration camp, just an example statement (similar to apartheid, genocide, etc. which he also said in the same breath). I don't think there's a strong case to be made otherwise.

@jBosc and actually, I don't see that anyone has a position that reflects a strong opinion here and most were taken before the video released. I'd like to know what @Abraxas perspective is as a person who bought in recently but I'm ready to resolve this No.