The NHC is somewhat confident that Idalia will reach Bermuda. Will it strike there as at least a Tropical Storm? Resolves per the NHC and/or the BWS.

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Winds on Bermuda have been gradually decreasing since earlier this
morning, and weather stations on the island are no longer measuring
sustained tropical-storm-force winds (at standard elevation).
Gusts to tropical storm force will likely continue on Bermuda into
tonight while Idalia pulls away from the island, but the Bermuda
Weather Service has elected to discontinue the Tropical Storm
Warning in favor of local warnings. Therefore, this will be the
last NHC advisory on Idalia.Idalia did not become a Tropical Cyclone again and will not become one again. It is by now also too far away from Bermuda if it did. This resolves NO.
Even though Idalia is producing what could be considered organized
deep convection, global models fields are fairly unanimous that the
cyclone will not shed its associated frontal boundaries. Since the
most likely scenario is that Idalia will remain an extratropical
cyclone, a transition to a tropical or subtropical cyclone is no
longer indicated in the official forecast during the short term
(although it still can't be completely ruled out).
Even though Idalia is no longer explicitly forecast to transition
to a tropical or subtropical cyclone, NHC advisories will continue
until tropical storm conditions diminish on Bermuda and the
Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued (most likely some time
Sunday morning). Will keep it open until the last NHC advisory.
Isssuesd at 5:30 GMT-3 by the BWS: "A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Bermuda as Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia skirts by to our south today and begins to move off to our northeast overnight. Idalia may possibly re-strengthen into a tropical cyclone as this occurs, bringing further wet weather and tropical storm force winds. Hazardous surf and rip currents continue."
I will keep this open since there is a minimal chance this scenario does happen (I would still need to check if it met the strike criteria). However, this will most likely resolve as NO because a Subtropical Cyclone is not a Tropical Cyclone and can thus not be a Tropical Storm.
1. It has to be a Tropical Storm and has to do the following while it is a TS
2. It has to bring tropical-storm conditions to Bermuda while a TS
3. Part of the TS has to be over the island: Either as a direct hit, should Idalia's center pass directly over Bermuda while a TS or it would have to be a 'close approach', where Bermuda experiences some of the most intense parts of the storm (close to the storm's maximum winds).
I agree "strike" doesn't feel entirely right here. It's a bit too vague: I took it to mean center or significant part of storm moves over island. Will keep this in mind for potential future storm markets and stick to more technical terms there.
Sorry for any potential confusion. If any of you lose mana because of this, let me know and I'll make you whole.
It’s now a post tropical cyclone though there is tropical storm watch issued for Bermuda. Is it supposed to restrengthen or could there be tropical storm strength winds without it being technically a TS? In the latter case, how would this resolve?
@NicoDelon Oh ok
Gradual weakening is forecast through Friday night.
Restrengthening is possible over the weekend, and Idalia is expected
to transition back to a tropical storm by Saturday.


