Will Bob Menendez be expelled from the Senate?
33
264
650
2025
9%
chance

Resolves YES if Sen. Menendez of NJ is expelled from the Senate at any point of the 118th United States Congress. Resolves according to major media coverage.

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Will Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) be convicted?
59% chance. On September 22, 2023, Robert Menendez, the senior United States Senator from New Jersey, was indicted by federal prosecutors in Manhattan. The indictment alleges that Menendez accepted bribes in exchange for using his political position to benefit three businessmen and the Egyptian government. [AP News] [New York Times] [The Economist] This market resolves YES if United States Senator Robert Menendez is found guilty of a criminal offense in United States v Menendez (docket no. 23 Cr. 490) by the New York Southern District Court. The market resolves YES if Menendez accepts a plea bargain in which he pleads guilty to at least one charge. Pleading nolo contendere ("no contest") to a charge is not sufficient to be considered a guilty plea. The market resolves NO if Menendez is found not guilty of any criminal offense because he is acquitted of the charges or because the case/charges are dismissed. The market resolves NO if there is a mistrial or hung jury. In any other outcome besides those listed above, the market will resolve N/A. If none of the outcomes above occur before January 1, 2028, the market will resolve N/A. This market pertains only to the proceedings, verdict, and resolution by the New York Southern District Court of the specific case referenced above. Any appeals, referrals, retrials, or subsequent legal proceedings are beyond the scope of the market. Related markets: (https://manifold.markets/embed/sarius/will-bob-menendez-be-expelled-from)(https://manifold.markets/embed/BrianCaulfield/will-us-senator-robert-menendez-dnj)

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bought Ṁ140 of NO

No one has been expelled from the Senate since 1862, so this seems pretty unlikely. People tend to resign before facing expulsion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress

bought Ṁ5 of YES

from the man himself:

@sarius Opps in the Senate can't handle seeing a Latinx king getting his money up

@sarius When you consider that this is the second time he's been charged with federal corruption charges in the past eight years, it doesn't seem so quick...