Will a hurricane hit either of the Carolinas by the End of September?
21
370Ṁ17k
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if either South or North Carolina record a direct hit and/or landfall (NHC definitions) from a Hurricane by September 30th. Resolves per NHC advisories.

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2023 Hurricane Season
Extreme Weather
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This will close in 3 hours and resolve NO. Goodby Ophelia (and all the fish storms) hedge market.

Hmm I missed the timing on this market to bet...

Only betting to keep track of Invest 97L. Still extremely early.

Edit: NHC has it at now at 60% of forming in next 7 days.

GFS valid time is 13 days from now so the uncertainty is huge

12h forecast spaghetti models:

@parhizj New GFS from 00h shows Invest 97L/98L it never reaching the coast after turning north in 8 days.

predictedYES

Hurricane Lee strengthens to Category 4 storm as it approaches the Caribbean | CNN
Hurricane Lee has strengthened into a major Category 4 storm with maximum sustained wind speeds of 130 mph, according to the 5 p.m. EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
predictedNO

@AviS Have you looked at the tracks?

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/weather/hurricane-lee-potential-path-atlantic-climate/index.html

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