The prediction market focuses on the possibility of establishing a fresh political entity within the Republic of India. This could involve the creation of a new state or union territory. However, any new autonomous administrative divisions will only be taken into account if their authority is substantially augmented beyond their present scope to the level of - but not in name - a state or union territory.

The authority to form new states and union territories in India is exclusively vested in the Parliament of India. This can be accomplished by declaring new states/union territories, dividing territory from an existing state, or amalgamating two or more states/union territories, along with portions thereof.

I will resolve this YES if the Parliament of India passes a law admitting or establishing a new state or union territory. Why 2027? Because then the Lok Sabha (the lower chamber of parliament) will have finished half of its next term set to begin in June of 2024.

FYI: There are currently 45+ proposed new states and tensions - especially in Manipur - have been rising.