Compared to the average between 1991-2020, will the temparature anomaly for February 2024 in Helsinki be positive (it means warmer than average month; resolves to YES) or negative (it means colder than average month; resolves to NO)?
I will resolve this when the official statistics update at https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/statistics-from-1961-onwards
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ68 | |
| 2 | Ṁ63 | |
| 3 | Ṁ55 | |
| 4 | Ṁ39 | |
| 5 | Ṁ35 |
I think this is about the best we have currently: a (somewhat) calibrated, probabilistic weekly forecast from ECMWF. It shows slightly below-average temperatures before Feb 12 (depicted at the end of the range in the figure). The model climate is "last 20 years" so roughly the 1991–2020.
In general, because the temperature distribution during winter is skewed (cold tends to be really cold), most winter months (>50%) are above average. And there is a slight warming trend. I haven't quantized either, but I'd guess a priori without any forecast the probability of above avg Feb would be somewhere around 55–60%.
Also note the currently ongoing minor SSW, leading to a distorted polar vortex manifesting at the surface in 2–6 weeks — which is probably factored into the EC forecast above and may be the reason for the dip at the end. (Edit: the latest polar-vortex forecast looks like the SSW is a bummer, but we'll see.)