Market was ~20% when I bet NO. I've got it around 3%. QCOM is about $176, so $300 means a ~70% jump in under three months. Its high this year was ~$260, and its recent day-to-day swings don't make a move that big likely, even with earnings in November. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/

QCOM was $165.79 on August 14, while its 2026 high is only $246.70 - $300 still requires a sharp late-year rally. I put the probability at 16%; the market’s 33% looks rich for a target that remains well above every recent high.