Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the Justice Department releases the Epstein Files by December 19, 2025, as required by the Epstein Files Transparency Act. The law requires the Department of Justice to "make publicly available in a searchable and downloadable format" all files pertaining to the prosecution of Jeffrey Epstein within 30 days of passage. Resolution will be determined by whether the DOJ has made any substantive release of documents to the public by the deadline, not whether the release is complete or unredacted. The law permits exceptions for survivors' personal information and other sensitive material.

Background

The Epstein Files Transparency Act was signed into law by President Trump on November 19, 2025. The law requires the Justice Department to fully release the Epstein Files within a 30-day requirement. Over the past week, three federal judges have ordered grand jury material from cases involving Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell to be unsealed after the Justice Department renewed requests for the records to be made public following enactment of the Epstein Files Transparency Act. The House Oversight Committee has received more than 95,000 photos from the Jeffrey Epstein estate and has reviewed about 25,000 of those images so far.

Considerations

There remain questions about whether the administration will actually release things by the deadline, and there are means for the administration to redact certain materials or to decline to disclose certain materials. Some material could be temporarily withheld as it may pertain to an ongoing investigation ordered by Attorney General Pam Bondi into people who knew Epstein and some of Trump's political foes, including former President Bill Clinton.