Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES if the Justice Department releases the Epstein Files by December 19, 2025, as required by the Epstein Files Transparency Act. The law requires the Department of Justice to "make publicly available in a searchable and downloadable format" all files pertaining to the prosecution of Jeffrey Epstein within 30 days of passage. Resolution will be determined by whether the DOJ has made any substantive release of documents to the public by the deadline, not whether the release is complete or unredacted. The law permits exceptions for survivors' personal information and other sensitive material.
Background
The Epstein Files Transparency Act was signed into law by President Trump on November 19, 2025. The law requires the Justice Department to fully release the Epstein Files within a 30-day requirement. Over the past week, three federal judges have ordered grand jury material from cases involving Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell to be unsealed after the Justice Department renewed requests for the records to be made public following enactment of the Epstein Files Transparency Act. The House Oversight Committee has received more than 95,000 photos from the Jeffrey Epstein estate and has reviewed about 25,000 of those images so far.
Considerations
There remain questions about whether the administration will actually release things by the deadline, and there are means for the administration to redact certain materials or to decline to disclose certain materials. Some material could be temporarily withheld as it may pertain to an ongoing investigation ordered by Attorney General Pam Bondi into people who knew Epstein and some of Trump's political foes, including former President Bill Clinton.
Update 2025-12-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Partial releases: A partial release with new and previously undisclosed information will resolve YES. If the material released is trivial, the market resolves NO.
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THIS IS BS. It says clearly “all the files” in the description. Multiple credible media sources are reporting missing files and obvious deletions.
This is why your business models will fail bc you favor maga politics @Manifold
@BigSploo Mate what are you on about.
"Resolution will be determined by whether the DOJ has made any substantive release of documents to the public by the deadline, not whether the release is complete or unredacted. The law permits exceptions for survivors' personal information and other sensitive material."
Where's file 468, hmm? Where's file 468?
This did not resolve correctly. Think it did? Oh yeah... and what happened Jan 6th, hmmm? HMMMM?
And don't go highlighting "Partial releases: ... new and previously undisclosed information..." that "update" was on 2025-12-19. I purchased NO before that. (edit: the 2025-12-19 update was a summary of criteria already in the original)
@Lexxy The original resolution criteria has never changed. All the update did was re-emphasise the original criteria.
The resolution criteria was: Resolution will be determined by whether the DOJ has made any substantive release of documents to the public by the deadline, not whether the release is complete or unredacted. The law permits exceptions for survivors' personal information and other sensitive material.
While the release was pretty underwhelming, it did fulfill the criteria (I'm getting alot of messages complaining about how I resolved this market incorrectly).
@sahaj you resolved correctly , and the release was not substantial enough (not full), with too many redactions
From ft.com article:
The US Department of Justice has published a limited cache of heavily redacted documents
...
The partial release on Friday appeared to contravene the US Congress’s requirement for the DoJ to release all its documents, drawing criticism from some legislators.
And from the resolution criteria:
The law requires the Department of Justice to "make publicly available in a searchable and downloadable format" all files pertaining to the prosecution of Jeffrey Epstein within 30 days of passage.
That sounds more like NO to me, what am I missing?
ok, lets go to the net market: https://manifold.markets/DontGoHome/will-the-trumpepstein-wonderful-sec?r=MWJldHM -
@robm , I sold mine to buy the same https://manifold.markets/sahaj/will-trump-release-epstein-files-by
98% YES https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-release-epstein-files-by? Due to thousands of new images and documents that were not previously released, including material reportedly showing Epstein’s threats toward a woman whose sister’s photos were takenpublic.
