Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Iran launches a military strike (missile, drone, or other attack) against the United States or Israel before March 7, 2026. The strike must be a direct attack originating from Iranian territory or Iranian-controlled forces, not proxy groups. Resolution will be based on official statements from US, Israeli, or credible international news sources confirming Iranian military action.

Background

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel conducted military strikes on Iran. Israeli officials stated that missile and drone attacks from Iran were expected imminently. An Iranian official told Reuters Tehran is preparing for retaliation that is set to be crushing.

The Iran-Israel war (June 13-24, 2025) saw Israel bomb military and nuclear facilities in Iran, and Iran retaliated with over 550 ballistic missiles and over 1,000 suicide drones. Israel destroyed at least 35-45 percent of Iran's ballistic missile stockpile during the Israel-Iran War, but Iran has reportedly reconstituted its medium-range ballistic missile stockpile to pre-war levels.

Considerations

Iran may seek to demonstrate that even limited US or Israeli strikes would carry costly consequences, through missile or drone attacks on Israel, strikes on US bases, maritime disruption, or proxy activity. However, Iran faces real constraints—its regional network has been degraded, its air defenses and missile infrastructure damaged, and its capacity for coordinated, high-intensity escalation reduced.

This description was generated by AI.