BACKGROUND

In October 2025, the Italian Parliament approved a constitutional reform that separates the careers of judges and prosecutors, splits the existing Supreme Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two separate councils, introduces sortition (lottery) instead of election for council members, and creates a new High Disciplinary Court. The full text was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 253 on October 30, 2025:

https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2025/10/30/25A05968/sg

Because the reform was approved with less than a two-thirds majority, it is subject to a confirmatory referendum (no quorum required). A prediction market on whether YES will prevail in that referendum is here:

https://manifold.markets/AldoRaine/will-the-yes-vote-prevail-in-the-it

The reformed Article 104 provides that lay members of the two new CSMs are drawn by lot from a list that Parliament compiles "by election" (mediante elezione). The Constitution does not specify what majority is needed for this election. Under standard Italian parliamentary rules (Article 64 of the Constitution), the default is simple majority. If a supermajority were required, opposition parties would gain bargaining power and the list would more likely be bipartisan.

QUESTION

Will the implementing legislation require a supermajority (any threshold above 50%+1 of those voting) in Parliament for the election of names onto the list(s) from which lay CSM members are drawn by lot?

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

Resolves YES if the implementing law published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale specifies any voting threshold above simple majority for the parliamentary vote that compiles the list (or lists) of lay candidates for CSM sortition. If separate procedures are established for different lists (e.g., one for each CSM or one for the CSMs and one for the High Disciplinary Court), resolves YES only if a supermajority is required for all of them.

Resolves NO if the implementing law specifies simple majority, does not specify any threshold, or if no implementing law addressing this matter has been published by December 31, 2028.

Resolves N/A if the constitutional reform does not enter into force.

NOTE

This market was created with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic) as part of a structured analysis of the reform's implications and uncertainties.