This resolves YES if all the following are fulfilled:

• Vingegaard wins GC with 3+ minute time gap over second place

• No non-teammate GC contender gains over 30 seconds over Vingegaard on any stage. GC contenders are the top 10 GC at the end of the Vuelta, as well as the top 10 options in the below market at an arbitrary time September 1st (I will post a screenshot in the comments then).

• Vingegaard wins solo on a stage with a time gap of 1 minute or more over all non-teammate GC contenders

https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/who-will-win-the-2025-la-vuelta-a-e?r=cm9iZXJ0