Rules:
1) Each user may ask 1 yes or no question per 12 hours. I will attempt to answer each question promptly.
2) For one of their questions, when asking it, each user may indicate that they want the answer to their question to be private. If they do so, I will dm them the answer at least 12 hours before replying to their comment with the answer
3) My quite uninformed best guess for the number of times X happens is 3. I will not answer any questions about probabilities that answers are correct, or how many times X has happened so far in June.
4) If an question is ambiguous or has an unknown answer, I will give my best guess as to the answer, but will not indicate that I am doing so. I will respond to any attempts for clarification, as long as doing so does not give away extra information beyond 1 but per question.
5) X is an event relating to the world outside of manifold and anyone with an Internet connection can know how this market should resolve at the end of June, provided that they known what X is.
1,000π Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ117 |
X is "Trump signs an executive order including the word 'fentanyl'".
I didn't realize how obscure/impossible to get this would be when I made the question. Oops.
@robert I realized how hard it is to narrow down a set of events. For n plausible events, you get 2^n plausible sets of these eventsβ¦
@robert Will all instances of X show up on https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-orders/ ?
Does X include only executive orders that involve domestic policy?
@robert I've just noticed that navigating to the Executive Orders page leads me to https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-orders/?s=Administration%20Policy
β but https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-orders/ shows even more EOs, so I guess I'll ask about them, nextβ¦
Does X include "Empowering Commonsense Wildfire Prevention and Response"?