Rules:
1) Each user may ask 1 yes or no question per 12 hours. I will attempt to answer each question promptly.
2) For one of their questions, when asking it, each user may indicate that they want the answer to their question to be private. If they do so, I will dm them the answer at least 12 hours before replying to their comment with the answer
3) My quite uninformed best guess for the number of times X happens is 3. I will not answer any questions about probabilities that answers are correct, or how many times X has happened so far in June.
4) If an question is ambiguous or has an unknown answer, I will give my best guess as to the answer, but will not indicate that I am doing so. I will respond to any attempts for clarification, as long as doing so does not give away extra information beyond 1 but per question.
5) X is an event relating to the world outside of manifold and anyone with an Internet connection can know how this market should resolve at the end of June, provided that they known what X is.
Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided answers to user questions to help determine what X is:
Does X typically direct federal agencies to take specific actions? Yes
Does X typically involve creating new policy? No
Does X exclude executive orders that involve domestic policy? No
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Does X include only executive orders that involve domestic policy?
@robert You gave me a yes for 'Presidential Actions' and a no for every subsection of 'Presidential Actions', unless your no to "Is X the public signing of a bill or executive order?" was not a no to the subsection 'Executive Orders'?
@4fa X is not the public signing of an executive order, as in if X happens then it does not follow that an executive order was signed publicly (as in streamed, or with press in the room).
However, you know that X is a subset of executive orders and nominations.
@robert I was not aware that I know that. 😅 Very confused right now. Is X an Executive Order at all?
@4fa yes.
In my earlier comment, I forgot about your question about appointments and nominations, so at that time, you should have known that X is an executive order. Sorry.