Once the R1 is in the hands of consumers (5K+ units delivered), and the hype has died down (~1 month later), will it suck? (End date may be adjusted accordingly, if there are shipping delays)
Suckiness is of course entirely subjective, so this market will be resolved via a future manifold poll, titled simply "Does the Rabbit R1 Suck"?
The poll will run for 1 week, and the description of the poll will clarify that the poll is assessing suckiness at that point in time, and not speculation that it might improve in the future.
I might bet in this market.
Poll: https://manifold.markets/retr0id/does-the-rabbit-r1-suck
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ121 | |
| 2 | Ṁ77 | |
| 3 | Ṁ62 | |
| 4 | Ṁ58 | |
| 5 | Ṁ57 |
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The poll hasn't closed yet, but it's looking unanimous after 24h, so I'm going to resolve the market now.
How about instead using a user rating score from a site with reviews as a threshold for resolving this market?
btw I'm thinking I'll start the 1-week poll a week before the market ends (so they end at roughly the same time), any objections?
(I originally left it unspecified)
Videos from users have started to drop. I've found this one from a reddit thread. Compared to the Humane Pin the response is pretty fast!
Here's it struggling to accuractly identify objects: https://twitter.com/raywongy/status/1783016191692312581
Reviews for the Humane pin are coming in - obviously not the R1 but I think they'll be a strong indicator.
@retr0id https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JjInHnLmGI "The Humane AI Pin solves nothing and makes me feel stupid"
@retr0id MKBHD on Humane Pin: "The Worst Product I've Ever Reviewed... For Now"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TitZV6k8zfA
Per my initial description, I've just extended the end date to the May 23rd, exactly 1 month after the announced "launch party" date of April 23rd, which iiuc is also the current ship date.
Rabbit seem to be posting raw (i.e. uneditied) POV videos of the Rabbit R1 in action. Seems to fit the description given in the on-stage announcement. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3T5wmZOsjdA
I'd argue this is an update downwards for this market, perhaps 20-40%.
@ElliotDavies Interesting, but the fact that this is consistent with what's been previously announced/demoed doesn't change my opinion much either way. And the concrete capability shown here isn't that fundamentally different to a "hey siri, send a text to xxx" that we've had for ages. I know there's LAM magic going on in the background (supposedly), but I'm not yet convinced it'll be the revolution some people are hoping for. (all that said, I'm still not betting in this market, I'm too uncertain about it!)
Similar question with slightly different resolution criteria https://manifold.markets/polarblau/will-the-rabbit-r1-receive-favorabl
Marques' comment was clearly worded not to give anything away, but my reading between the lines + blind guessing is that he actually has positive sentiment towards it
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Why use play money?People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?