Will I go to the gym at least once per week until the end of the year?
Will I go to the gym at least once per week until the end of the year?
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1kṀ9018resolved Feb 10
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I use markets like this as commitment devices. It generally works very well.
For this market to resolve YES, I have to go to the gym every calendar week between 13.01.24 and 31.12.24, unless I use a joker. After the first visit, I get ½ joker for each additional visit within the same week.
I will not bet on this market.
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@traders I had an accident, fractured my elbow, my arm is in plaster. I definitely won't be going to the gym this week and don't have a joker to compensate.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.