Resolves YES if:
I have been banned from Manifold between August 1, 2026, and December 31, 2028.
AND
The first time I was banned in that time period, all evidence suggests that @Quroe was the one who banned me. If this is ambiguous, a poll created on the @realDonaldTrump account will resolve it.
Resolves NO if:
I have been banned from Manifold between August 1, 2026, and December 31, 2028.
AND
All evidence suggests that @Quroe did NOT ban me from Manifold during this time period (i.e. it was a different mod). If this is ambiguous, a poll created on the @realDonaldTrump account will resolve it.
Resolves N/A at the end of 2028 if:
@Quroe is not a mod.
OR
I have not been banned from Manifold between August 1, 2026, and December 31, 2028.
In the event that a poll could not be conducted due to the @realDonaldTrump account being banned, the mod who banned @realDonaldTrump will have to delete their account, otherwise, they must send Ṁ67k directly to me within 24 hours of this market closing. If they do not, this market will resolve 67%.
@realTomBayes You have baked a prediction into your resolution criteria. What if your alt accounts also get banned and a poll cannot be conducted?
Also, just... don't break the Community Guidelines? I think you've been around here long enough to have a gut feeling for these things now.
@Quroe an addendum has been attached
also, this market resolves conditional on me breaking the community guidelines.
