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MANIFOLD
Will @Quroe be the next moderator to ban me?
0
Ṁ100
2028
50%
chance

Resolves YES if:

  • I have been banned from Manifold between August 1, 2026, and December 31, 2028.

    AND

  • The first time I was banned in that time period, all evidence suggests that @Quroe was the one who banned me. If this is ambiguous, a poll created on the @realDonaldTrump account will resolve it.

Resolves NO if:

  • I have been banned from Manifold between August 1, 2026, and December 31, 2028.

    AND

  • All evidence suggests that @Quroe did NOT ban me from Manifold during this time period (i.e. it was a different mod). If this is ambiguous, a poll created on the @realDonaldTrump account will resolve it.

Resolves N/A at the end of 2028 if:

  • @Quroe is not a mod.

    OR

  • I have not been banned from Manifold between August 1, 2026, and December 31, 2028.

In the event that a poll could not be conducted due to the @realDonaldTrump account being banned, the mod who banned @realDonaldTrump will have to delete their account, otherwise, they must send Ṁ67k directly to me within 24 hours of this market closing. If they do not, this market will resolve 67%.

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I will not trade on this market.

Comment hidden

@realTomBayes Well, it would be uncouth for me to profit from using the ban power.

@Quroe Well, that's what Manifold is for!

@realTomBayes I'm still recusing myself.

CC @Quroe

@realTomBayes You have baked a prediction into your resolution criteria. What if your alt accounts also get banned and a poll cannot be conducted?

Also, just... don't break the Community Guidelines? I think you've been around here long enough to have a gut feeling for these things now.

@Quroe an addendum has been attached

also, this market resolves conditional on me breaking the community guidelines.