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MANIFOLD
Will more goals be scored in the World Cup Final than in the Bronze match?
19
Ṁ100Ṁ1.5k
resolved Jul 20
Resolved
NO

  • Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Penalty shootouts count toward the total goal tally when comparing the World Cup Final and Bronze match.

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opened a Ṁ10,000 NO at 5% order

10k up at 5%

Do you count penalty shoot outs?

@realTomBayes deceptive market!

@realTomBayes WC markets have nearly uniformly excluded shootouts from goal counts. The market price suggests that’s what traders are assuming. I think you know what you’re doing.

@MachiNi I don't "know what I'm doing," I've rarely participated in world cup markets on manifold

@realTomBayes you should know what you’re doing then

@realTomBayes if you want to be well rated as a market creator. If you don’t care, then knock yourself out.

@MachiNi do you look at creator ratings before betting?

@realTomBayes sometimes yes and you seem to display a pattern

@MachiNi shots fired.

i still have 4 stars. and i've gotten some review trolls that drag down the rating

@realTomBayes @Jack1 is not a troll.

@MachiNi debatable