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MANIFOLD
Will an AI agent be directly convicted of a crime before 2030?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ130
2029
16%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, before January 1, 2030, an artificial intelligence (AI) agent or autonomous software algorithm is directly convicted of a criminal offense in a recognized court of law.

For a YES resolution, the following conditions must be met:

  • The AI agent itself must be formally named as a defendant in a criminal case and found guilty or convicted by a court (local, national, federal, or international).

  • The legal system must treat the AI agent itself as the criminally liable party, rather than attributing the liability to a human developer, user, or corporate owner.

The market will resolve to NO under any of the following circumstances:

  • No such conviction occurs before January 1, 2030.

  • A human developer, user, owner, or standard corporate entity (such as an LLC, even if fully run by an AI) is convicted of a crime for actions involving or executed by an AI.

  • An AI is involved in civil litigation, regulatory penalties, or administrative fines, but not a criminal conviction.

  • The conviction occurs as part of a mock trial, academic simulation, or hypothetical legal exercise.

Market context
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