MANIFOLD
Will my parents allow Manifold to futarchy my course selections?
19
Ṁ100Ṁ561
Dec 31
75%
chance

See the comments for clarifications before betting

This is honestly a toss-up, they're big into "letting me make my own decisions," so I guess I could let Manifold decide and just give them that answer and they'd let me do it, but if they found out that I was using Team Hanson techniques my dad might crash out (our family is Team Cowen all the way when it comes to GMU economists)

Some light mumbo jumbo:

This market resolves to a 1-100 FR coinflip if linked market resolves NO before this market resolves.

If ASI comes before this market is resolved and AGI still doesn't exist, resolves to Kalshi's current market share of notional volume.

  • Update 2026-01-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use futarchy to arrive at a course selection first, then present that course selection to their parents (rather than asking parents for permission to use futarchy before knowing the results).

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What's the flow here? Well you a) use futarchy to arrive at a course selection and then play the course selection by your parents or b) tell your parents you'll use futarchy, without knowing results yet, and then ask for permission?

Maybe this is a good case for going route a)?

@AlexanderTheGreater I was planning on doing A

bought Ṁ30 YES

@realDonaldTrump so it's really "will my parents agree with the schedule I arrived at through futarchy"?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@realDonaldTrump Yeah this is misleading

@ChurlishGambit sorry

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