MANIFOLD
What will be true of Manifold's next Pivot?
8
Ṁ175Ṁ258
2100
60%
Involves any real-money (that's integral to it, not like buying mana)
41%
New model is very similar to sweepstakes
37%
Involves converting mana to charitable donations
25%
Involves crypto
11%
It replaces mana
11%
New play-money currency
10%
Involves cashing out mana

Pivot is defined as any change that integrally changes how I would use Manifold. Here's some examples:

  • Offering decision markets only

  • Becoming a Metaculus-style tournament thing

  • Adding back sweepstakes

  • New currency

  • Adding a major charity program

  • Direct cashouts

I won't bet to maintain market integrity. Edge cases will be resolved by a poll. Resolves when the next pivot happens, or all resolve NO when Manifold shuts down

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