I am unhappy with all the markets trying to ask how good Sonnet 5 will be. Here is another market that you, too, can be unhappy with! I will close and evaluate this market one month after the release.
I use both browser chat and Claude Code, currently only with Opus 4.5. I sometimes run into token limits, but not super regularly.
Presumably, it will have to be at least almost as good as Opus 4.5 for me to switch. If I am using a mix of both (which would surprise me), I will estimate the amount and resolve partially. If I switch to another model entirely, I will N/A.
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2026-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has switched to Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 (not Sonnet 5). They are considering several resolution options:
Resolve N/A per literal resolution criteria (switched to another model entirely)
Resolve No based on the market title (didn't switch to Sonnet 5)
Reinterpret the market to be about Opus 4.6 or Sonnet 4.6
Wait for a model actually named Sonnet 5 to release
The creator is soliciting trader input on how to resolve.
1,000@traders
So I'm unsure what to do here. I have switched from Opus 4.5 to some mix of Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, neither of which is Sonnet 5. By the title of the market the answer is No, by the literal resolution criteria I think the market resolves N/A?
There are some other options (as the model everyone expected to be released as Sonnet 5 has probably been released now, either as Opus or as Sonnet 4.6):
- Reinterpret this to be about Opus 4.6
- Reinterpret this to be about Sonnet 4.6
- Wait for a model named Sonnet 5 to release and ignore minor releases in the meantime.
What do you all think?