Any credible proof that someone from any year of the US Forbes 30 under 30 is arrested (conviction not required) in December of 2023 will resolve this to YES.
Note that there are about > 7800 30 under 30. The probability of one of them being arrested is 1 - ((1 - P)^7800), where P is the probability of one of them being arrested in December. Even with P being 5000 to 1 odds, that is near certainty.
🏅 Top traders
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@ryfuzzi Was there now?
FWIW I'm not going to re-resolve, it's not practical for markets like these to not have a deadline for evidence. Other mods might disagree though, so there could be a vote.
But yeah, if there was an arrest pray tell
Edit: from discord, I'm guessing you're thinking of the arrest of Von Miller, which as mentioned was in November and so (barely) doesn't count for this market.
@qrdlkaggle Heya, ring-a-ling-a-ding dong! Wake up and resolve!!! How can you scam? Why do you scam?
Enough is enough! Wake up @qrdlkaggle you fuckling clown shoe!!! Here is how this works, you've not finding nothing, not a thing. So you resolve it and if anything be changing in it coming out you have mod re-resolving it. Take the L like the big boy and moving along! Are you still sitting there googling all these hours and days? Don't be playing this game with me ding dong. 🤡
@UniversalFC the creator, who has a large YES bet, has seemingly decided to give themselves unlimited time to scour the entire US Forbes 30 under 30 list googling people to see if any news came out that they got arrested in Dec. They haven't found anyone yet.
I'm just guessing, but if they were a NO better I suspect they might have been less thorough, and perhaps any other traders asking for such a time extension might not have gotten it.
I think closed markets should be resolved and markets that aren't going to be resolved should be opened, but apparently the creator doesn't agree.
@chrisjbillington So, you want me to close this market without checking everyone? I can do that no problem. Of course, that would be a total scam in every sense of the word, but hey it's your integrity I guess.
These are the market rules:
Any credible proof that someone from any year of the US Forbes 30 under 30 is arrested (conviction not required) in December of 2023 will resolve this to YES.
Note that there are about > 7800 30 under 30. The probability of one of them being arrested is 1 - ((1 - P)^7800), where P is the probability of one of them being arrested in December. Even with P being 5000 to 1 odds, that is near certainty.
And now, holy sht, you want to close the market without checking all 7800. WTF did you expect? Just do one google search and call it a day!
Nice due diligence! What a freaking scam.
On top of this you've provided ZERO assistance in checking these 7800. I mean .. holy FFF... is this how you make M$ going around scamming people like this?
Anyways, have no problem closing the market if that's what the scammers want. I got better things to do than actually take this seriously.
@qrdlkaggle So the crux isn't not doing the due diligence. For me what is iffy, is you being the market creator and also having a large stake in a somewhat subjective market. They were not aware of how thoroughly you wanted to search for the results, which would influence their % odds.
If I'm interpreting Chris Bilington's statement, then they want either: The market is close so should resolve to the current finding OR open the market to trading (but no change to the December window for the arrests).
@qrdlkaggle I sold my shares so I'm good. There's no incentive for me to help, it's your market and I don't agree with how you're running it anyway.
If you became inactive and I were resolving it as a mod on your behalf you can be sure that I would not be doing more than a quick google search. If YES betters want it to resolve YES and there is harder-to-find information that shows it should, they can present it. Otherwise it will resolve NO. That is usually how markets like this work. Comprehensive surveys for evidence aren't usually practical so resolution rarely depends on them.
If you want help, you should reopen the market to incentivise others to look. There's little point them looking now if it they can't trade on it if they find someone.
But, more to the point, close dates are usually interpreted as times shortly after which markets will be resolved. If it's not possible to resolve a market by a given date, it is usual to keep it open longer. You could extend the date now, though this is still counter to your traders' expectations, they expected it to resolve shortly after end of year. So ideally you would simply resolve.
If you do reopen it, you should set a clear deadline by which if there is no news anyone has found, the market resolves NO. The lack of such a deadline in your original criteria is what led people to assume the deadline was end of year. Fine if you took a few days more but it's getting a bit silly now. Set a date and stick to it.
Please either resolve, or reopen with a clear deadline for resolution.
Ok, 2020/2019 Media 30 under 30 -> squeeky clean. Not a charred apartment among any of them. What happened to the good ol' days of getting arrested protesting war and such??
Anyone want to loan me some M$ so I can buy NO?? J/k. Maybe. I'll resume the search tomorrow. This is going to be a slog.
@qrdlkaggle 0%. You are doing the math wrong and it's okay, it happens. Resolve this now!
@qrdlkaggle Not as bad as rap stars (are you allowed to be a rap star if you haven't been arrested multiple times? Seems not. And probably would have done the trick, but too many of them are either dead or doing prison sentences) or basketball players and football players, but looks like there are some bad boys in the media bunch. All it'll take is a dwi, disorderly at an airport, maybe some excessive speeding. Or setting your apartment on fire.
@Mirek You're the one being racist here. There are all sorts of demographics that are rap stars, basketball players, and football players.
Also let's be perfectly clear - rap stars versus say fashion stars of the same race have TOTALLY different statistics when it comes to arrests.
This is a CULTURAL issue, not a race issue. Rap, basketball, and football culture have serious issues, bro. I mean, holy cow!