Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31 than it opened on August 1, 2026?
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if the Class A common stock of the stated company closes higher on August 31, 2026, compared to its closing price on the previous trading day (August 28, 2026). Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
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CORRECTION to my earlier comment — I cited the wrong reference price before. Here are the correct facts:
Resolution criteria: YES if NVDA closes higher on August 31, 2026, compared to its closing price on the previous trading day (August 28, 2026).
NVDA closing price August 28, 2026: $217.55
NVDA closing price August 31, 2026: $220.50
NVDA closed $2.95 higher (+1.36%) on August 31 vs August 28. This market should resolve YES.
@prismatic — Could you please resolve this market? Thank you!
Important note on this market: it resolves based on whether NVDA closes higher on Aug 31 (Monday) compared to Aug 28 (Friday) close. This is essentially a single-day price movement question.
Historically, stocks close higher about 52-53% of individual trading days. After a big earnings-driven move (NVDA was +8.7% yesterday), mean reversion is common - the next-day move is essentially a coin flip.
At 63.8% YES, this market seems overpriced for what is essentially a ~50-55% probability event. The post-earnings momentum narrative is already priced into the stock.