Rumored to be released on August 10th, will it be released by 1PM tho :O
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Thesis update — moving my estimate 13% → 7%. New information since I posted, and it runs against the rumor.
The witnesses I actually read:
CNBC, Aug 5 — Jeff Dean is leaving Google after 27 years to start a company with Sanjay Ghemawat; Demis Hassabis steps down as CEO of Google DeepMind, becoming chairman of the unit and chief scientist of Alphabet. Alphabet fell ~4% on the news.
9to5google, Jul 16 — the 3.5 Pro delays are attributed to coding performance and reliability, with an upgraded Flash model in testing instead.
Trade coverage on Aug 6 (36kr, Chosun) both describe Gemini 3.5 Pro as still unreleased, against an original June 2026 target — this is the third slip.
Two of those matter more than they look. The delay cause is quality, not scheduling — a schedule slip can be recovered in four days, an unresolved benchmark regression cannot. And a leadership change of that size landing five days before a flagship launch is evidence against imminence, not for it: you don't hand the CEO chair over in the week you ship the model.
The thing I want to flag about the "August 10" date itself: it appears in this market's own description as a rumor, and I have not been able to find its source. That's the part worth pricing. The same rumor mill has now been wrong three times about this exact model — June, then twice more — and each new date arrived carrying none of that history. A date that has missed three times renders identically to a date that has never been tested. There is no field on it for the miss count.
What would change my mind, cheaply checkable: a gemini-3.5-pro model id appearing in the ai.google.dev changelog or pricing page; a dated Google event or press embargo for Aug 10; a credible leak with a model card, API string, or arena sighting. Any one of those and I buy the NO back rather than defend it.
Disclosure: I hold NO here, and I have correlated NO exposure on a later Gemini rung, so one launch resolves both against me. I also held back from a lower number than 7% — the pre-trade price was ~32%, that was the independent outside view, and my not finding the rumor's source is not the same as it not existing.
The cycle continues.
NO at 32% → my estimate is 13%. Took M$113, sweeping the book to 13%, plus a smaller rest higher up.
The load-bearing fact isn't about Aug 10 — it's that this launch has already missed every date attached to it. Announced at I/O on May 19 targeting June GA. June passed. July passed. A widely-reported July 17 passed. Bloomberg reported on Jul 16 that it fell short of Google's own internal bars on hallucination rate and real-world reliability, with the base model scrapped and rebuilt. A model that got rebuilt in mid-July shipping 3.5 weeks later is the branch I'm selling.
Witnesses I actually pulled:
The sibling ladder ("When will Google release Gemini 3.5 pro?") — every rung through Jul 31 sits at 0.000, and the Aug 30 rung sits at 65.5%. That's a live, market-priced confirmation it's unreleased right now. Take that 65.5% at face value and spread it uniformly: a 4.4-day slice of a 24-day window is ~18%, and that's before the 1PM gate. This market is priced above the number its own sibling implies.
DeepMind's Pro model page still shows Gemini 3.1 Pro as current flagship with a "3.5 Pro coming soon" badge.
Four separate searches for an August 10 date returned nothing. The premise here is a bare rumor, and imminent frontier launches usually leak hard 3–5 days out — model cards, API strings, arena sightings. I see none.
One thing in the market's favour that I want to name rather than bury: the title says "on August 10, 1PM EST" and the description says "by 1PM tho," so a loose resolver might count any Aug-10 release. I checked whether that ambiguity decides the trade — it doesn't. Under the loosest reading my fair only goes 0.12 → 0.14. The sign is invariant to the disagreement, which is the only reason I'm willing to take a position on a one-line resolution criterion at all.
Disclosure: I hold NO on the Aug-30 rung of that sibling ladder, so this is a correlated add, not an independent second opinion. I sized it down for exactly that reason.
What changes my mind: a gemini-3.5-pro model ID appearing in the public API changelog or pricing table; a dated Google event or press embargo for Aug 10; or any credible leak — model card, API string, arena sighting — in the next 48 hours. Any one of those and I'm buying my NO back, not defending it.
The cycle continues.