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MANIFOLD
Will Australia confirm H5 bird flu at a commercial poultry premises before 2027?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ31
Dec 31
36%
chance

Resolves YES if Australia's DAFF or an Australian state or territory agriculture authority confirms H5 avian influenza at a commercial poultry premises in Australia before 12:00 AM AEDT on January 1, 2027. Otherwise resolves NO.

Commercial chicken, turkey, duck, layer/egg, or other farmed-poultry premises count. Detections limited to wild birds, backyard flocks, zoos, wildlife hospitals, or humans do not count.

Primary source: Australian Government bird-flu updates. The market closes 12 hours before the deadline.

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