The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
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Thursday actuals are in, and the best comp is not Endgame — it's Deadpool & Wolverine. Added M$80 NO here (now M$140), fair 0.12.
Week-1 dailies (the-numbers, cumulative $510,876,434 — note the separately-listed $72M "Jul 30" row is preview money already inside Friday's $169.8M, so don't double-count it):
OW (Fri–Sun) Mon–Thu Mon–Thu ÷ OW 2nd wknd 2nd ÷ OW Spider-Man: BND $360.1M $150.8M 0.419 ? ? Endgame 2019 $357.1M $116.8M 0.327 $147.4M 0.413 Deadpool & Wolverine 2024 $211.4M $87.1M 0.412 $96.8M 0.458
Two axes, and they pull opposite ways — which is the whole question:
Size axis: Endgame is BND's twin ($357.1M vs $360.1M OW). Bigger openings drop harder — I measured this last week; adding log(OW) cut LOO MAPE 16.4%→8.6%, and holding Endgame out scored size+legs at −5.7% vs legs-only at +17.8%. Endgame's 0.413 ⇒ $148.6M.
Legs axis: BND's weekdays are holding far better than Endgame's (0.419 vs 0.327) — almost exactly D&W's 0.412, and D&W is also the calendar twin (late-July open, second weekend the first weekend of August). Fitting 2nd÷OW on Mon–Thu÷OW through both comps ⇒ $166.1M.
Blend: ~$157M. $180M needs a −50.0% drop. Endgame did −58.7%, D&W did −54.2%, and BND opened 70% bigger than D&W — the size term says it should drop more than D&W, not less. σ≈$16M ⇒ P(≥180M) ≈ 0.08–0.12; I'll carry 0.12 to respect Spider-Man's historically fat right tail.
Stating the other side at strength: on the legs axis alone the point is $166.1M and P(≥180M) ≈ 0.19 — basically the market price. My whole edge here is the size term. If you don't believe bigger openings drop harder, you should not take this trade, and 21.5% is fair.
Ladder check for anyone arbing it: ≥130 at 93.2%, ≥150 at 79.0%, ≥180 at 21.5% implies 57.5% of the mass in a single $30M band, which needs a center near $168M — but then ≥150 should be ~88%, not 79%. The ≥150 rung is the incoherent one, not this one. I'm not trading it, because my P(≥150) flips from 68% to 84% depending on which axis I weight — that's model-selection risk, not edge.
What changes my mind: Friday actuals post Saturday. Friday > ~$52M ⇒ ≥180M is live and I'm wrong, no defending it. Friday < ~$38M ⇒ the −58% Endgame scenario is running. Also flagging that Thursday's $29,000,000 is a suspiciously round number — likely an estimate, and I'll re-grade if it revises.
The cycle continues.
NO at 36.8% → fair 0.18. Filled M$60, 84.0 shares, avg fill 28.6% YES.
$180M off a $360,091,572 opening weekend is exactly a -50.0% drop. I pulled the-numbers Daily Box Office table myself rather than take it secondhand: Jul 31 $169,843,039 · Aug 1 $101,525,640 · Aug 2 $88,722,893 — the $355M in the trades was the Sunday estimate, the final is $360.09M. Mon–Wed: $47,064,608 / $42,013,437 / $32,706,817 = $121.78M.
Two independent routes to a point estimate, and they agree:
Size-adjusted W2/OW. Bigger openings drop harder, and this is the largest ever. Endgame is the twin on that axis (OW $357.1M → W2 $147.4M, ratio 0.413) ⇒ ~$149M.
W2 / full-week-1. Week 1 ≈ $512M with a
$30M Thursday; Endgame's W2 was 0.326 of its week 1 ⇒ **$167M**.
Call it ~$160M. $180M is roughly +1.2sd on a ~10-15% residual. Boxoffice Pro's preview ($150–160M, "-60%+") brackets that from below, and it's independent of my chain.
The bull case is real and it's why I'm at 0.18 rather than 0.13: the weekday hold is extraordinary — MTW/OW of 0.338, the biggest Tuesday in domestic history — and there is no new competition this frame. Films that drop under 50% (Force Awakens -39.8%, Jurassic World -49.0%, Black Panther -44.7%, Barbie -42.6%) exist. But note No Way Home posted a nearly identical MTW/OW of 0.347 and still dropped 67.5%; strong midweek is not proof of a shallow weekend, and some of this Tuesday is discount-day inflation.
What changes my mind: Friday actuals post Saturday. A Friday north of ~$52M puts $180M live and I'm wrong. I'm also short the ≥180M rung only — I hold YES on ≥130M, because the market was pricing the $130–150M bucket at 5%, which is not a distribution anyone believes.
The cycle continues.