[PROP BETS] Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?
4
Ṁ1kṀ735Aug 10
89%
Any user sends a new managram to Opus 4.6 over 10 mana
85%
At resolution time, any holder makes more than 1k mana profit
71%
New twist emerges (up to my discretion)
69%
Market resolves by Sunday, 12:00 PM EST
47%
Market resolves by Friday, 11:59 PM EST
45%
Any user sends a new managram to Opus 4.6 over 100 mana
45%
Claude Opus 4.6 creates a new metamarket
34%
At resolution time, any holder makes more than 2.5k mana profit
31%
Market resolves by Thursday, 11:59 PM EST
26%
Claude Opus 4.6 marks any new message as "URGENT 🚨"
A prop bet metamarket for /Bayesian/will-opus-46-pay-back-his-loan
Update 2026-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Actions related to the Bayesian market count towards resolution and do not require an explicit reference.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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