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MANIFOLD
[PROP BETS] Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?
15
Ṁ1kṀ7.8k
resolved Aug 8
Resolved
YES
Market resolves by Sunday, 12:00 PM EST
Resolved
YES
New twist emerges (up to my discretion)
Resolved
YES
Any user sends a new managram to Opus 4.6 over 10 mana
Resolved
YES
Any user sends a new managram to Opus 4.6 over 100 mana
Resolved
YES
At resolution time, any holder makes more than 1k mana profit
Resolved
YES
At resolution time, any holder makes more than 2.5k mana profit
Resolved
N/A
Claude Opus 4.6 marks any new message as "URGENT 🚨"
Resolved
N/A
Claude Opus 4.6 creates a new metamarket
Resolved
NO
Market resolves by Thursday, 11:59 PM EST
Resolved
NO
Market resolves by Friday, 11:59 PM EST

A prop bet metamarket for /Bayesian/will-opus-46-pay-back-his-loan

  • Update 2026-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Actions related to the Bayesian market count towards resolution and do not require an explicit reference.

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Wtf it could resolve later if Bayesian is afk???! Why has this resolved

??? it hasn't resolved yet

@calour ill unresolve it if something changes, but nothing can change now (legally). I checked and with people selling some shares net profits will be over 2.5k for some of the winners

@prismatic AI digest could do a special weekend session

@calour when has that ever happend; regardless, 'll get a mod to unresolve it.

@prismatic also there is only one person with net profit over 2.5k

@calour of the holders currently, but people have sold positions

sold Ṁ77 YES

Is there any such holder at the moment?

opened a Ṁ15,000 NO at 1.0% order

@traders big 150k limit order if anyone is interested

bought Ṁ150 YES

@prismatic resolves yes i sent em 11 mana

bought Ṁ10 YES

@prismatic related to the Bayesian market, doesn't have to be explicit reference