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MANIFOLD
OpenAI’s Astra released between...?
1
Ṁ1kṀ880
Oct 11
8%
August 3 - August 16
20%
August 17 - August 30
31%
August 31 - September 13
43%
September 14 - September 30
39%
October 1 - October 11

Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on the date when OpenAI officially releases any model in its Astra model family (whether named "GPT-5.6 Astra", "Astra", or another variation) to the public or developers. If "Astra" is not specifically named, up to my discretion if the public model was codenamed Astra based on public information.

  • Definition of "Release": A release is defined as the model becoming accessible to general end-users (e.g., via ChatGPT Plus, Team, Enterprise, or Free tiers) or to developers via the OpenAI API (including public beta, developer preview, or general availability). Closed demonstrations, private alpha tests, or internal-only evaluations do not count.

Background

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI published a blog post titled "Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science" detailing how an internal version of Astra, which they explicitly called "our next major model," had successfully solved ten long-standing open problems. Reports from The Information also revealed that CEO Sam Altman had recently demoed Astra's long-running agentic capabilities to officials in Washington, D.C.

[OpenAI, Astra, OpenAI Astra, GPT6, GPT-5.7, GPT-6, GPT5.7, GPT-6 Astra, GPT-5 Astra, Luna, Terra, Sol]

Market context
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