This market resolves to YES if Re-Logic (the developer of Terraria) makes an official announcement confirming the development of Terraria 2 on or before December 31, 2026. The announcement must be made through official Re-Logic channels (website, social media, forums) or through a reputable gaming news outlet with direct quotes from Re-Logic staff.
Re-Logic has previously hinted at a sequel, with Redigit (Andrew Spinks) saying "You ain't seen nothing yet" when asked about a potential sequel in 2022. Cenx (Whitney Spinks) also mentioned that development of Re-Logic's "game two" would start after the release of 1.4.4, though it wasn't clear if she was referring to Terraria 2.
Resolution criteria: An official announcement from Re-Logic confirming Terraria 2 is in development. Teases, hints, or jokes about a sequel do not count as an official announcement. The announcement must explicitly confirm that Terraria 2 is being developed.
Sources for resolution:
Re-Logic website: https://re-logic.com/
Official Terraria Twitter: https://twitter.com/Terraria_Logic
Terraria Forums: https://forums.terraria.org/
1,000Probably not. It's gonna be another few months until we get 1.4.5 (or 1.5!). After that, they still have plans to work on crossplay and probably some small patches as well, but plausibly they could also start working on a new game project. I know the last time they started working on a new game, it wasn't related to Terraria. Since Re-Logic does love working on Terraria so much, I do wonder if they'd actually bring themselves to work on a new IP, but by that same token we might as easily just expect them to keep working on Terraria. In any case, even if they do start work on Terraria 2, that would mean they only have around a year to announce it, which seems kind of early?
I'd give it something like: 75% chance the next update releases and they're done releasing patches and such by Q2 2026 and Re-Logic moves onto their next project. Then something like a 50% chance it's more updates to Terraria 1, 25% chance it's a new IP or some other game that isn't Terraria 2, and 25% chance it's Terraria 2. Then maybe there's something like a 60% chance they announce it by the end of the year, even if they start working on it. ...Ah man, I didn't want to have to bet so much NO on this.