Definition (what counts as a “shutdown”): A lapse in annual appropriations causing affected executive-branch departments/agencies to implement shutdown contingency plans, including furloughs of non-excepted employees under OMB guidance. A partial shutdown (some, not all, agencies affected) counts.

YES — Resolve Yes if a shutdown is in effect at 11:59 pm Eastern Time on November 17, 2025 (i.e., at least one department/agency subject to annual appropriations is operating under a lapse in appropriations with non-excepted furloughs).

NO — Resolve No if, by 11:59 pm ET on November 17, 2025, all such departments/agencies are funded by enacted appropriations or a continuing resolution (i.e., no shutdown at that time). It is No even if a shutdown occurred earlier but ended before 11:59 pm ET.

Clarifications / Edge cases

• The market is agnostic to when the shutdown began; only status at 11:59 pm ET matters.

• Passing a funding bill/continuing resolution ends the shutdown at the moment it is signed into law by the President (enactment time).

• Agency closures for reasons other than a lapse in appropriations (e.g., IT outages, strikes, weather, holidays) do not count.

Primary sources for verification (in order of preference)

1. OMB and agency shutdown/contingency status pages

2. OPM operating status / governmentwide guidance

3. Major, reputable outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, WSJ) to corroborate timing

Resolution timestamp: The market resolves once the status at 11:59 pm ET, Nov 17, 2025 is determinable. For platform consistency, record resolution no later than 11:59 pm PT, Nov 17, 2025, or earlier once confirmed.