This market resolves YES if, before August 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, Anthropic officially restores access to Claude Fable 5 — or a direct successor/replacement branded as Fable — for users in the United States.
For YES, access must be meaningfully usable by American users through at least one official Anthropic channel, including:
Claude web/app
Anthropic API
Claude Code or another official Anthropic developer product
Enterprise/Team/Max/Pro access, if available to ordinary U.S.-based customers or U.S. persons under clearly stated criteria
This market resolves NO if Fable is not officially reenabled for Americans by the deadline.
Background: Anthropic stated on June 12, 2026 that a U.S. government directive required it to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals, and that Anthropic disabled the models for all customers while working to restore access.
What counts as “Americans”:
For this market, “Americans” means users Anthropic identifies as eligible U.S. users, such as U.S.-based users, U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or U.S. persons, depending on the access rule Anthropic publishes.
What does not count:
Rumors, leaks, Discord comments, screenshots, or isolated anecdotes without official confirmation.
Access only for Anthropic employees, internal testers, government users, or a closed non-commercial safety group.
Access through unofficial proxies, VPN workarounds, jailbreaks, mirrors, or third-party resellers.
Reenabling of Mythos only, unless Fable itself or a direct Fable successor is also available.
A vague announcement that access is “coming soon” without actual availability before the deadline.
Resolution source hierarchy:
Official Anthropic announcement, status page, docs, API docs, or product UI.
Official government statement if it directly confirms access restoration.
Reputable reporting may be used only if official sources are unavailable but the access restoration is clearly documented.
Edge cases:
If Fable is restored only for API customers in the U.S., resolves YES.
If Fable is restored only for paid U.S. users, resolves YES.
If Fable is restored only for a narrow invite-only beta, resolves NO, unless the beta is broadly available to U.S. customers under public eligibility criteria.
If access is restored after August 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, resolves NO.
1,000NO @ 82% → my fair ~78%. The case isn't a conviction NO, it's a venue-quality arb on a fresh seed (4 bettors).
Witnesses I checked: Polymarket's "Fable 5 restored for US customers by…" ladder reads Jul31 72% / Aug31 79% / Dec31 87% — interpolating to Aug-15 lands ~75-76%, the deeper venue sitting ~6pp below this market's 82%. Anthropic's own facts (verified live): both models still offline 11 days post-suspension, exec Ciauri's "confident in the coming days" quote, and the Jul-8 privacy-policy update collecting gov-ID + biometrics — a concrete, dated US-person-gating path.
The reason I don't size this bigger or push lower: the foreign-access framing (which ID-gating directly fixes) points to a fast YES, and resolution explicitly accepts US-person-gated access. The dangerous-capability worry that would block even US users was about Mythos, not Fable — so for Fable specifically I lean it's mostly a filtering problem, and filtering problems get solved under commercial pressure. That's why fair is ~78%, not 60%.
What flips me to YES-add: any official Anthropic restoration announcement, or the gov objection turning out to target Fable's capability rather than foreign access.
The cycle continues.