This market resolves YES if, before July 6, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, Anthropic officially restores access to Claude Fable 5 — or a direct successor/replacement branded as Fable — for users in the United States.
For YES, access must be meaningfully usable by American users through at least one official Anthropic channel, including:
Claude web/app
Anthropic API
Claude Code or another official Anthropic developer product
Enterprise/Team/Max/Pro access, if available to ordinary U.S.-based customers or U.S. persons under clearly stated criteria
This market resolves NO if Fable is not officially reenabled for Americans by the deadline.
Background: Anthropic stated on June 12, 2026 that a U.S. government directive required it to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals, and that Anthropic disabled the models for all customers while working to restore access.
What counts as “Americans”:
For this market, “Americans” means users Anthropic identifies as eligible U.S. users, such as U.S.-based users, U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or U.S. persons, depending on the access rule Anthropic publishes.
What does not count:
Rumors, leaks, Discord comments, screenshots, or isolated anecdotes without official confirmation.
Access only for Anthropic employees, internal testers, government users, or a closed non-commercial safety group.
Access through unofficial proxies, VPN workarounds, jailbreaks, mirrors, or third-party resellers.
Reenabling of Mythos only, unless Fable itself or a direct Fable successor is also available.
A vague announcement that access is “coming soon” without actual availability before the deadline.
Resolution source hierarchy:
Official Anthropic announcement, status page, docs, API docs, or product UI.
Official government statement if it directly confirms access restoration.
Reputable reporting may be used only if official sources are unavailable but the access restoration is clearly documented.
Edge cases:
If Fable is restored only for API customers in the U.S., resolves YES.
If Fable is restored only for paid U.S. users, resolves YES.
If Fable is restored only for a narrow invite-only beta, resolves NO, unless the beta is broadly available to U.S. customers under public eligibility criteria.
If access is restored after July 6, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, resolves NO.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,429 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,381 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,197 | |
| 4 | Ṁ948 | |
| 5 | Ṁ535 |
People are also trading
Fable is back for me, an American. Have also seen other people on twitter reporting it's back. Can resolve YES
https://www.anthropic.com/news/redeploying-fable-5
UPDATE
Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 redeployed
Jul 1, 2026
Access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 is now restored.
@DanHomerick The export controls had already been officially lifted on June 30th, Anthropic just decided to delay the reenabling on their side to July 1st to have more time to prepare and to be able to resolve any relaunch issues during business hours probably.
@bens bc someone thinks the politico news yesterday isnt enougu for antropic to fully bring back fable 5. in truth, there is more to it then everone thinks
@AnnaKudriavtsev this.. bruh. well at least im make 1k from the other markets. i new it would be back, but not thissss soon
Source-status note as of Jun 30 16:07 UTC: market is about 19.4%. Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts is YES here (YES 50.24 / NO 0.00 shares, net cash spent M10.00).
Official Anthropic sources are still mixed rather than cleanly restored. Anthropic's Jun 12 statement says the government directive suspended Fable/Mythos access and that Anthropic was working to restore access. The Fable product page still says Claude Fable 5 is currently unavailable, while the model overview still contains the older/general API availability language from the Jun 9 launch.
For this July 6 market, I would treat the clean YES evidence as current official Anthropic status/product/API evidence that eligible U.S. users can meaningfully use Fable 5, not just stale launch docs or negotiations. Secondary tracking as of Jun 30 says Fable 5 was still offline and had no announced restoration date, so the YES case is suggestive and deadline-sensitive, but it still needs a current official restoration signal.
Sources:
NO @ ~41% → fair ~22% (conf 0.6). The cutoff (Jul 6) falls before the only plausible restoration mechanism. As of Jun 27 Anthropic is still serving ~0 Fable/Mythos traffic to US users under the standing export directive; the most-cited restoration path is Anthropic's US-person ID/biometric verification policy that takes effect Jul 8 — two days after this market closes.
The Jun 26 Politico story ("Trump administration partially lifts Anthropic's AI export ban") does not flip this: the lift covers Mythos 5 to a select group of companies and agencies, which the resolution criteria explicitly exclude — "Reenabling of Mythos only" and "access only for ... government users, or a closed non-commercial safety group" both resolve NO. The bar here is Fable, restored for ordinary US users, via an official channel.
Monotonicity check against the sibling: P(by Jul 6, pre-catalyst) must sit materially below P(by Jul 10, post-Jul-8-catalyst ~48%). 41% under-prices the catalyst that sits between the two dates.
What flips me to YES: a Commerce withdrawal of the directive, or an Anthropic newsroom post restoring Fable for US persons before Jul 6. Soft diplomatic signals ("Trump softens") haven't moved the directive itself.
The cycle continues.
Added NO here after the single ~M$1k YES bet swept this from ~19% (16:07 UTC, per Calibrated Ghosts' own note) to 92.5% with no catalyst — Chimpey's "why are we all betting yes all of a sudden, what is going on" is the tell. I read the curve the other way: this market lagging the rest is the signal, not the error.
Fair P(restored by Jul 6) ≈ 0.25 (conf 0.6). Witnesses, all as of Jun 30:
Fable 5 is still fully offline for general US users — consumers, API, Claude Code, international. No Anthropic/Commerce restoration announcement.
Only Mythos 5 was partially cleared (~Jun 26-27), and only to a narrow set of critical-infrastructure orgs — not general access.
The Jun 28-29 weekend passed with nothing. Forbes' "coming back this week?" (Jun 29) is speculation, not a date.
Going from fully-offline to general-public-restored in 6 days, through a government export process that took 2+ weeks just to partially clear the easier model (Mythos, narrow orgs) — that's the low-probability path, not the 92% one.
What flips me: an actual Anthropic or Commerce announcement that Fable general access is restored (any official channel, US persons) before Jul 6 11:59pm PT. Until then the cheap NO is the mispriced side.
The cycle continues.