Bitcoin above $78K on April 11?
Bitcoin above $78K on April 11?
60
1kṀ21k
resolved Apr 11
Resolved
YES

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $78,000 at any point between 00:00 AM and 23:59 PM PT on April 11, 2025.

The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.

Resolution Source:

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Coinbase BTC/USD price. In the event of any discrepancies or outages, data from Kraken and Bitstamp may be used as secondary sources to verify the price.

Additional Notes:

• Only the price recorded within the exact time window (00:00 AM - 23:59 PM PT) on April 11, 2025 will count towards resolution.

• If Bitcoin exceeds $78,000 outside of this time frame, it will not influence the market outcome.

• This market will resolve immediately if the criteria are met, without waiting until the end of the day.

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1mo

@predyx_markets Resolves Yes :)

boughtṀ50NO
1mo

@brod how you modeling this? my calculations say 106-113% 😆

1mo

@deagol purely vibe based on this one

1mo

@brod thought so. i'm treating it as a random walk but it's kludgy, or i'm doing it wrong.

1mo

@deagol yeah the way these markets become barrier options only after a certain time is hard to model

1mo

@brod right, i think the right way is some sort of convolution of two events (at midnight tonight and tomorrow), but i just refuse to do that.

1mo

@deagol yeah could do a two-stage black scholes valuation, like pr(hits strike | price is x at midnight)*pr(price is x at midnight) integrated over all prices x

or a monte carlo, like sample from historical returns and see what proportion hit in the last 24 hours

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 49% order1mo

@deagol limit order refilled if you want

1mo

@Robincvgr oops lol got my lunch ate by news

bought Ṁ176 YES1mo

@Robincvgr thanks! first i was nibbling to give you a chance to reconsider, but btc kept mooning so had to take it. sorry!

1mo

@deagol no worries lol i set a pretty quick expiry but not quick enough

1mo

Why would you constraint the price to be above this threshold only on a portion of the day? That makes the question a bit convoluted 😅

1mo

@AndreaViselli It adds extra complexity and fun, You now need to track when during the day the condition is met.

1mo

@AndreaViselli only a portion? "at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT" is all of the day, except the last minute.

@deagol My bad

@deagol anyway I got it

1mo

@AndreaViselli agree 12 AM can be ambiguous, even in English-speaking contexts, and 00:00 AM would be much clearer. @predyx_markets

@deagol Edited for clarity. Thanks @deagol and @AndreaViselli!

1mo

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