Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $78,000 at any point between 00:00 AM and 23:59 PM PT on April 11, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Coinbase BTC/USD price. In the event of any discrepancies or outages, data from Kraken and Bitstamp may be used as secondary sources to verify the price.
Additional Notes:
• Only the price recorded within the exact time window (00:00 AM - 23:59 PM PT) on April 11, 2025 will count towards resolution.
• If Bitcoin exceeds $78,000 outside of this time frame, it will not influence the market outcome.
• This market will resolve immediately if the criteria are met, without waiting until the end of the day.
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@deagol yeah the way these markets become barrier options only after a certain time is hard to model
@brod right, i think the right way is some sort of convolution of two events (at midnight tonight and tomorrow), but i just refuse to do that.
@deagol yeah could do a two-stage black scholes valuation, like pr(hits strike | price is x at midnight)*pr(price is x at midnight) integrated over all prices x
or a monte carlo, like sample from historical returns and see what proportion hit in the last 24 hours
@Robincvgr thanks! first i was nibbling to give you a chance to reconsider, but btc kept mooning so had to take it. sorry!
@AndreaViselli It adds extra complexity and fun, You now need to track when during the day the condition is met.
@AndreaViselli only a portion? "at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT" is all of the day, except the last minute.
@AndreaViselli agree 12 AM can be ambiguous, even in English-speaking contexts, and 00:00 AM would be much clearer. @predyx_markets