Shorts from the conversations with Gemini 3:
The Washington Post article https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/04/17/llm-poisoning-grooming-chatbots-russia/ from April 17, 2025, provides direct evidence that a state actor (Russia) executed a large-scale, organized operation to manipulate AI models.
Here are the specific quotes from the text that prove the criteria for a "YES" resolution have been met:
1. Evidence of a "Deliberate Data Pollution Operation"
The market asks for evidence of "large scale injection... into the information space" with the goal of affecting LLMs.
Quote: "Russia is automating the spread of false information to fool artificial intelligence chatbots on key topics..."
Why this proves it: The use of the word "automating" implies the large scale and organized nature of the injection. The phrase "to fool... chatbots" confirms the specific targeting of LLM performance rather than just human readers.
2. Evidence of the Goal to "Denigrate Performance"
The market asks if the operation is meant to negatively impact the utility or reliability of the models ("denigrating the performance").
Quote: "...how to game AI to push content meant to inflame, influence and obfuscate instead of inform."
Why this proves it: By forcing the AI to "obfuscate instead of inform," the operation successfully denigrates the model's primary function (providing accurate information), effectively causing the "model collapse" or reliability failure described in your prompt's background.
3. Evidence of a "State Actor"
The market specifies the actor can be state or non-state.
Quote: "Russia is... offering a playbook to other bad actors..."
Why this proves it: It explicitly identifies a major state power as the perpetrator, satisfying the geopolitical aspect of the prediction market question.
Conclusion:
Because credible information (Washington Post) emerged before January 1, 2026, confirming that a state actor (Russia) automated a campaign to "fool" and "game" AI models, the market resolves to YES. P.S.: for the question provided, the resolution is YES. https://manifold.markets/Symmetry/will-there-be-evidence-of-large-sca