Nothing clever. May update from time to time. Obviously, if you like one and can deliver it to the markets, feel completely free to run with it.

• [importance: 7/10, fun: 2/10, difficulty: 6/10] Various disaster risks

  • Floods, droughts, earthquakes, wildfires, terrorism, coups, …

  • Informal evaluation (media) vs. academic and legal criteria (e.g. state of emergency/natural disaster)

  • Difficult but non-zero value add – limited predictability

• [importance: 7/10, fun: 3/10, difficulty: 7/10] Scientific consensus on health effects of X (vs not X)

  • Drinking alcohol. (How much? How long?)

  • Particulate matter air pollution (What kinds? How much? How long?) (Made one: https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/will-the-who-global-air-quality-gui)

  • Vaping. (What? How much? How long?)

  • Eating red meat. Sugar. Smoked meats. Saturated, trans fats. (How much? How long?)

  • What sources? When? What measure?

    • Preferably GRADE approach meta-analytic reviews from WHO, Cochrane, etc., before 2030

    • Criteria for source evaluation: what authorities and methods are trusted more (standard: RCTs, meta-analyses, peer-review, WHO, AMA)

    • Quality-adjusted life months, elevated risk of illness

• [importance: 6/10, fun: 4/10, difficulty: 6/10] New technologies

  • Gene editing will have cured at least one major disease by 2025 (https://twitter.com/sama/status/1081584255510155264) (Made one: https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/will-gene-editing-have-cured-at-lea)

• [importance: 6/10, fun: 2/10, difficulty: 4/10] Wars

  • Will Ukraine receive cluster munitions from the US in 2023? (Made one: https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/will-the-us-openly-commit-in-2023-t)

  • Will the conflict in [Yemen, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Somalia] quiet down/end in 2023?

    • A peace treaty, cease-fire, fewer than 1000 deaths?

• [importance: 6/10, fun: 4/10, difficulty: 7/10] Unusual risks

  • Will a rare space weather event happen in 2023

    • R5, S5, and/or G5 event on NOAA scales?

• [importance: 4/10, fun: 4/10, difficulty: 4/10] Various big policy proposals and their effects

  • A shorter work week adopted in a specific place – will it happen? How will GDP/employment/etc. change?

  • Minimum wage – likewise

  • Rent control

  • Retirement age changes

  • Immigration

  • Free trade agreements

• [importance: 4/10, fun: 5/10, difficulty: 3/10] Campaign promises

  • In some cases ready-made trackers exist, e.g. https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/biden-promise-tracker/, https://www.politifact.com/florida/promises/desant-o-meter/

• [importance: 5/10, fun: 4/10, difficulty: 5/10] Public works

  • Will this new bus lane/highway lane alleviate traffic

    • Uber’s Movement, BTS Travel Time Index, TomTom Traffic Index

• [importance: 3/10, fun: 5/10, difficulty: 4/10] Conspiracy theories

  • Will the USA introduce a social credit score before 2025?

  • Will an authentic Obama birth certificate show he was not a natural-born citizen

  • How many people will be reported jailed under Canadian “Bill C-16” in 2023

  • …

• [importance: 2/10, fun: 6/10, difficulty: 4/10] Pop-culture

  • Revival (or death) of video game genres

    • MUDs, RTS, augmented reality

    • various popularity rankings on Steam, Twitch, YouTube

• [importance: 2/10, fun: 3/10, difficulty: 2/10] Academic award predictions

  • Who will win the John Bates Clark Medal [May]

  • Who will win the ACM Turing Award [April]

  • …