I think that market creators were well-intentioned and that there’s a strong presumption people knew most markets were about spaceship victory – or in practical terms, about what Feb 3rd stream was. It’s suboptimal we didn’t iron out the criteria, but that can simply be difficult.
The “secret ending” one might be the most reasonable and fair for me to refund, but it may take a couple of days before I commit.
I don’t have any more thoughts to share right now, just want to collate basic information about markets (and their discussions) to keep an eye on. The numbers are provisional and likely somewhat wrong.
“Finish Factorio”
https://manifold.markets/dggL/will-destiny-finish-factorio-in-the
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio in the next "day or two"?”
Description: “Closes if he claims to have finished factorio before the resolve date.”
Affects: 103 people, Ṁ74770
https://manifold.markets/AlexLiesman/will-destiny-finish-factorio-before-42a317a7aaf9
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio before February 6th?”
Description: –
Affects: 56 people, Ṁ4511
https://manifold.markets/Geko1701/will-destiny-finish-factorio-during
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio before the end of the February 2nd stream?”
Description: –
Affects: 16 people, Ṁ3010
https://manifold.markets/PatrickNotthestarfish/will-destiny-finish-factorio-before-dea2c2333fcb
Question: “Will destiny finish factorio before March 1st”
Description: –
Affects: 3 people, Ṁ380
https://manifold.markets/zarth/will-factorio-end-before-232023-115
Question: “Will Factorio end before 2/3/2023 11:59pm?”
Description: “Will resolve in a YES if Destiny finishes factorio before Feb 3rd (…)”
Affects: 6 people, Ṁ228.
https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-destiny-finish-factorio-before-9e20dfd62fc0
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio before February 4th?”
Description: –
Affects: 4 people, Ṁ152
https://manifold.markets/Sognik/will-destiny-finish-the-factorio-sp-cf485a6c6134
Question: “Will Destiny finish the Factorio Space Exploration Modpack before February 6th, 2023?”
Description: –
Affects: 5 people, Ṁ60
https://manifold.markets/MorbisMIA/what-comes-first-mrmouton-finishes
Question: “What comes first, MrMouton finishes a Minecraft SR or Destiny finishes Factorio?”
Description: –
Affects: 1 person, Ṁ50
“Complete or quit”
https://manifold.markets/DesTiny/will-destiny-finish-factorio-by-the
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio by the end of February?”
Description: “Resolves YES if he stops playing factorio before market close, he doesn't need to actually complete the game he just must quit playing or take a substancial break.”
Affects: 20 people, Ṁ600
https://manifold.markets/DesTiny/will-destiny-finish-factorio-by-the-37346f4ec9b5
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio by the end of March?”
Description: “Resolves YES if he stops playing factorio before market close, he doesn't need to actually complete the game he just must quit playing or take a substancial break.”
Affects: 6 people, Ṁ71
https://manifold.markets/DesTiny/will-destiny-finish-factorio-by-the-9f0d978ad726
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio by the end of May?”
Description: “Resolves YES if he stops playing factorio before market close, he doesn't need to actually complete the game he just must quit playing or take a substancial break.”
Affects: 4 people, Ṁ45
https://manifold.markets/DesTiny/will-destiny-finish-factorio-by-the-514825d1d5ac
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio by the end of April?”
Description: “Resolves YES if he stops playing factorio before market close, he doesn't need to actually complete the game he just must quit playing or take a substancial break.”
Affects: 3 people, Ṁ36
“Finish or indicate he’s done”
https://manifold.markets/Ahdaymz/will-destiny-finish-factorio-by-feb
Question: “Will Destiny finish Factorio by Feb. 15th?”
Description: “Will resolve as yes if Destiny indicates he is done playing Factorio on or before Feb 15th (…)”
Affects: 61 people, Ṁ8079
“Completes secret ending without a break”
https://manifold.markets/market/will-destiny-go-for-the-secret-endi
Question: “Will Destiny go for the "secret ending"?”
Description: “YES if completes secret ending. NO if doesn't, or choses to come back and finish later.”
Affects: 36 people, Ṁ1317