Hello everyone,

I believe that this market was resolved incorrectly: /vdb/first-scorer-winning-rate-world-cup-5EOz5CSqZ5.

I have posted my analysis in the comments and have triple checked that the market was in fact not resolved to the correct winning rate percentage.

Is it possible for the market's resolution to be changed (perhaps by Manifold moderators)? I had a lot of mana on the line. :(

Here is the audit: 2026 FIFA World Cup — First-Scorer Win Rate: Full Match Audit