Manifold has markets on whether an AI will beat chess GM's by 2028 but not whether US unemployment will be above 15% that year. Why?
I was on the road (again, like a band of gypsies), thinking about questions and classes of questions I would like to bet on. I realized I don't have any positions on US economic growth due to AI/AGI/ASI despite having opinions on it.
I have a hard time making markets; I don't have a ton of manna, I'm bad at resolution criteria and I just don't enjoy it, but here are some markets I wish existed. If they exist already and I've just missed them, please point me to them.
Multiple Choice markets for US unemployment rate for every year from '26 - '30
Buckets should be something like [0-5% (good), 5-8% (bad-ish), 8-15% (bad!), 15-30% (Disaster), 30+% (Dario)]
MC market for annual GDP Growth in US for every year from '26 - '30 with buckets like [<0, 0-2, 2-4, 4-6, 6-10, Zvi]
MC market for SPY returns by [x for x in range(2026, 2030)]
Aren't these important interesting questions? Wouldn't these measure something more important, fundamental and objective than "Will AI be able to produce a movie / make an svg of a pelican in a 32 sided polygon"?!
1) There are markets like these but not exactly: https://manifold.markets/brod/us-real-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025
2) There are also literal markets in these questions (literal SPY or VOO etfs that you can buy)
3) Send me 10,000 mana and I will make one of the first two markets (your choice). The 10,000 will be enough liquidity to attract a lot of traders. I will find several firm resolution criteria and write them up clearly in the market description. The last one you can literally bet on with your own currency.
@JaySocrates
1) I couldn't find a single GDP market for 2027!
2) Extrapolating their 2028 price based on the current price is not a solved problem
3)
I don't have a ton of manna
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