I built a tool to help Manifold traders identify positions that might be worth selling.
Try it here: https://lars-0.github.io/-manifold-portfolio-analyzer-/
Why
Some markets have resolution dates that are in the far future, or the market has already moved substantially since you made the initial investment. In these cases, the potential 'return rate' if you are correct is low. If you want to gain liquidity, it makes sense to sell positions in those markets before taking a margin loan. Manifold offers margin loans at 0.03% per day (~10.9% annually). If you're holding positions where your potential return (assuming you win) is less than this rate, you should liquidate those positions before taking out a loan.
Personally, I try to avoid being in 'inefficient markets' - ones where the annual return rate is low, and keep enough liquidity to make larger bets when the opportunity arises.
What This Tool Does
Enter your (or anyone's) Manifold username and the analyzer will:
Fetch all your open positions from the API
Calculate the sale value (accounting for slippage)
Compute the annualized "return if correct" for each position
Show you every position below the margin loan threshold
Example
Say you have 50 YES shares in a market at 95% probability, closing in 2 years. Your potential profit is only M$2.50 (50 shares ร 5% gain), spread over 730 days. That's roughly 2.7% annualized - well below the 10.9% margin rate. Selling and using that M$47.50 elsewhere could earn you more.
Caveats
Early resolution: Returns are calculated assuming markets resolve at their close date. Markets that could resolve early (like "Will X happen by 2030?") may actually have better returns than shown.
Sets may have individual questions that resolve much earlier than the market close date.
Sale value is approximate: The AMM calculation may not be correct
How It Works
The tool runs entirely in your browser - it fetches data directly from Manifold's public API.