On October 10, 2024, Rafael Nadal announced his retirement from professional tennis. He will play his final matches as part of Team Spain for the 2024 Davis Cup Final 8, taking place in late November.
For the purposes of this market, I make no distinction between singles and doubles matches. If his final match is a doubles match and he wins, this market resolves YES. If he plays a final match (again, either singles or doubles) and loses, this market resolves NO. If he doesn't end up playing at the Davis Cup, then this market resolves NO, as he lost in both doubles and singles at the Paris Olympics earlier this year.
If he announces he has changed his mind and intends to play more professional matches then this market will be extended. An announcement must occur before this market has a chance to resolve, ie. before his final game of the Davis Cup starts for this market to be extended.
1,000
3.00@Jessef0226 Yet this is still at 21%--remarkable. There might be a 1-2% he changes his mind or the context Morgado posts leaves out something. That said, Alcaraz/Granollers doubles are heavy favorite to win that rubber so there's a solid chance Spain moves on. That said, Germany + Canada both have top 2 singles players that would likely beat Nadal so this should be far lower than 21%.
Unless I'm grossly misunderstanding the format (which I don't think I am), this almost always requires Nadal to win his last tournament. Even at Davis with Alcatraz, very hard for me to imagine that Spain are favorites over Italy, they certainly are over Netherlands and Canada but even those aren't sure things. I put this at ~40%, accounting for the possibility that he extends his career and wins something later if Spain loses.
EDIT: I was grossly misunderstanding the format, this is what I get for betting on sports I don't actually follow!
@speck different players can be selected for different matches (and match-ups). Nadal could play the first Spain singles match and win, and then be subbed out for the remainder of the tournament. Or he could only play the doubles match and win, even as Spain loses the tie overall.
@SirSalty awesome! added some liquidity to the mana market in case anyone's interested in trading there as well :)