Resolution Criteria

The market resolves to whichever player wins the men's singles title at the 2026 BNP Paribas Open, held March 4-15, 2026 in Indian Wells, California. Resolution will be determined by the official ATP Tour results at https://www.atptour.com/en/tournaments/indian-wells/404/overview.

Background

Alcaraz has won the tournament in 2023 and 2024, while Djokovic is a joint-record five-time champion. Sinner has triumphed at the other five hard-court Masters 1000 events but has never won Indian Wells, reaching the last four in 2023 and 2024. Fritz won the title in 2022. The hard-court event is set to feature all of the current Top 10 players in the PIF ATP Rankings, though Lorenzo Musetti's participation is questionable (which is why he is not initially listed as an option).

Considerations

Hypothetical seedings are the current rankings as of February 19, 2026. Seedings may not hold in case of any withdrawals or ranking changes between no and the beginning of the tournament.