This market will resolve based on the findings of the FBI’s current investigation of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected Trump rally shooter.
If the FBI finds the shooter was politically motivated to some degree, then this will resolve to either “Left” or “Right” based on the publicly stated conclusions of the investigation, and the common views of each respective political party.
By the end of the FBI’s investigation, if they conclude there is no clear discernible motive found, then this will resolve to “No Discernible Motive”
If the FBI finds the motive to be neither Left or Right leaning and does not state any evidence of political motivation, BUT THEY STILL FIND A DISCERNIBLE MOTIVE, then this will resolve “Not Politically Motivated”
I will not trade in this market and i will not add any more options, feel free to comment questions below! I will extend the market's time until the FBI concludes their investigation into Crooks' motive, of shooting Trump, if needed.
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good question, thank you for bringing this up and if you think of more don't hesitate to ask!
if the FBI concludes the motive to shoot the former president was something along the lines of "All people seeking political power should be killed." or just a general mutual hatred towards both sides for seeking political power was the only political motive, then i will most likely resolve this as "Left" purely based on the fact he very much tried to assassinate former president Trump but not president Biden.
If the FBI concludes he wanted to kill Biden too (also for seeking political power), or shows a (kill) list with his and Trump's names on it for the same political reason, then I will use all the released statements from the FBI to make the determination of which side of political ideology was more of a contribution in the motive for Crooks' shooting of Trump.
I haven't and wont trade due to this small chance of it being a slightly more subjective political motive.
New info on first Trump shooter- Tucker Carlson claimed his team conducted a forensic examination of Crooks' digital history, uncovering "hundreds of threats, political rants, and violent fantasies" spanning from 2019 to 2024. Key revelations included:Crooks initially expressed pro-Trump views but shifted dramatically around early 2020 (amid the COVID-19 pandemic) toward radical left-wing anti-Trump rhetoric, including calls for "terrorism-style attacks" on government buildings, assassinations of politicians, and mocking Trump supporters.
Explicit violent fantasies, such as dry-firing a handgun in his bedroom (captured in a Google Drive clip) and posting about sneaking bombs into "essential buildings."
A deep dive into Crooks' DeviantArt accounts ("epicmicrowave" and "theepicmicrowave"), where he posted sexually explicit "furry" artwork (anthropomorphic animal characters with exaggerated male physiques and female heads), used "they/them" pronouns, and explored gender identity themes tied to the transgender community.
@brianwang So now -- was extreme and espousing violence right pre early 2020, then flipped to extreme and espousing violence left (2020-2024). FBI sticking to none of this matters. Nothing to see here.
Could this be resolved to "no discernable motive"? Based on the official report?
The relevant committees may also seek to address important questions that the Task Force did not fully examine. Foremost among them are the motivations of Thomas Crooks and Ryan Routh, which remain largely unknown. The American people (and in the case of Crooks, the victims and their families) deserve that information.
@Vernas Is there a visible follow up committee that might determine the motive? Copilot says:
The FBI is actively investigating the shooting incident involving former President Donald Trump that occurred on July 13, 2024, in Butler, Pennsylvania. The investigation is ongoing, and the FBI has not yet identified a clear motive for the shooter's actions[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/butler-investigation-updates?citationMarker=43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054 "1")[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/update-on-the-fbi-investigation-of-the-attempted-assassination-of-former-president-donald-trump?citationMarker=43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054 "2"). The shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, was killed by the Secret Service during the incident[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Matthew_Crooks?citationMarker=43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054 "3").
The FBI continues to analyze evidence, conduct interviews, and follow up on leads to determine the sequence of events and the shooter's movements prior to the shooting[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/update-on-the-fbi-investigation-of-the-attempted-assassination-of-former-president-donald-trump?citationMarker=43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054 "2"). There is no indication that the investigation has concluded or that a final report has been released.
If you have any more questions or need further information, feel free to ask.
It's interesting that this https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/was-the-trump-shooter-a-republican?r=TWFraG5vYm9pMTk poll has such a different result
To confirm, you will extend the close date as long as the investigation is ongoing and has not made a determination as to the motive? @pluffASMR