This market will resolve based on the findings of the FBI’s current investigation of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected Trump rally shooter.
If the FBI finds the shooter was politically motivated to some degree, then this will resolve to either “Left” or “Right” based on the publicly stated conclusions of the investigation, and the common views of each respective political party.
By the end of the FBI’s investigation, if they conclude there is no clear discernible motive found, then this will resolve to “No Discernible Motive”
If the FBI finds the motive to be neither Left or Right leaning and does not state any evidence of political motivation, BUT THEY STILL FIND A DISCERNIBLE MOTIVE, then this will resolve “Not Politically Motivated”
I will not trade in this market and i will not add any more options, feel free to comment questions below! I will extend the market's time until the FBI concludes their investigation into Crooks' motive, of shooting Trump, if needed.
Related questions
good question, thank you for bringing this up and if you think of more don't hesitate to ask!
if the FBI concludes the motive to shoot the former president was something along the lines of "All people seeking political power should be killed." or just a general mutual hatred towards both sides for seeking political power was the only political motive, then i will most likely resolve this as "Left" purely based on the fact he very much tried to assassinate former president Trump but not president Biden.
If the FBI concludes he wanted to kill Biden too (also for seeking political power), or shows a (kill) list with his and Trump's names on it for the same political reason, then I will use all the released statements from the FBI to make the determination of which side of political ideology was more of a contribution in the motive for Crooks' shooting of Trump.
I haven't and wont trade due to this small chance of it being a slightly more subjective political motive.
It's interesting that this https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/was-the-trump-shooter-a-republican?r=TWFraG5vYm9pMTk poll has such a different result
To confirm, you will extend the close date as long as the investigation is ongoing and has not made a determination as to the motive? @pluffASMR
When the F.B.I. was able to finally access Mr. Crooks’s cellphones and other electronic devices, agents could see that he had searched for images of Mr. Trump as well as President Biden, Attorney General Merrick B. Garland and even F.B.I. Director Christopher A. Wray.
Mr. Crooks also had at typed in “major depressive disorder” and searched for dates and places for appearances for both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump.
One of Mr. Trump’s planned appearances happened to be about 50 miles from Mr. Crooks’s house in Bethel Park, Pa.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/17/us/politics/secret-service-trump-shooting.html
It's looking like the speculation that his motive was proving that he wasn't a terrible shot after being kicked out of the shooting club in high school was on to something.
@pluffASMR if it’s political motivation by proxy (eg was paid, or was doing it so senpai would notice him) does it resolve as the motive of the employer or senpai (if that’s left or right) or does it count as not politically motivated?
lmao love the question. if senpai is a political figure or publicly stated what party they’re voting for then it’d most likely be left or right (unless FBI has more info that contradicts) but if he just got paid (or tried to be noticed) by the senpai and no other motive was determined then it will be not politically motivated because his action of shooting was just motivated by money (or fame/delusion).