This will resolve to the same resolution as polymarket’s “Fact Check: law enforcement ordered to hold fire?”
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, definitive evidence is made public confirming law enforcement officers (including the Secret Service) were aware of a potential threat, and were explicitly ordered to hold fire against Thomas Matthew Crooks during the campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be publicly released information from relevant law enforcement agencies, and any information released from government investigations into the incident.”
NOTE: i do not think a standard policy to hold fire would be sufficient for a yes resolution. if the polymarket question resolves yes only based on the standard hold fire policy but NO verbal order in the moments after a threat is discovered then i will resolve this as no.
https://polymarket.com/event/fact-check-law-enforcement-ordered-to-hold-fire?tid=1721127517292
I will post new reports and any directly relevant news in the comments, feel free to ask any questions!
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i believe the creator of the question meant for a yes resolution to be only if there was any explicit order to hold fire in the moment between first seeing a "potential threat" (Crooks) and Crooks shooting the president.
i do not think a standard policy to hold fire would be sufficient for a yes resolution. if the polymarket question resolves yes only based on the standard hold fire policy but no order in the moments after a threat is seen then i will resolve this as no.
for a yes resolution there must be an explicit order made to hold fire against the suspicious individual (Crooks).
i believe the creator of the question meant for a yes resolution to be only if there was any explicit order to hold fire in the moment between first seeing a "potential threat" (Crooks) and Crooks shooting the president.
i do not think a standard policy to hold fire would be sufficient for a yes resolution. if the polymarket question resolves yes only based on the standard hold fire policy but no order in the moments after a threat is seen then i will resolve this as no.
for a yes resolution there must be an explicit order made to hold fire against the suspicious individual (Crooks).
this is wild:
“One of the snipers stationed inside the building reportedly first saw Crooks outside and looking up to the roof of the building before the suspect left the scene. Crooks later came back and sat down while looking at his phone near the building. CBS News reported that a sniper took a photo of the suspect when he returned.
Crooks then took out a rangefinder and the sniper who spotted him "radioed to the command post" about the suspect's actions. Crooks then disappeared again and returned to the building with a backpack. Secret Service snipers again alerted their command post about Crooks' actions.
According to the source who spoke with CBS News, Crooks had already climbed to the top of the building in question by the time additional officers arrived at the scene for backup. The suspect also positioned himself "above and behind the snipers inside the building."
By the time that police "started rushing to the scene" and other officers attempted to get onto the roof, the source told CBS News that a different Secret Service sniper had killed Crooks.
Several questions have been raised about how the alleged gunman was able to reach a vantage point and fire several shots at Trump, which left one attendee goer dead and injured two others, before being countered by the Secret Service. The FBI has launched an investigation into the incident.“
