i've seen some buzz about it. let's bet on it.
Resolves YES if
Manifold Markets is integrated into Twitter at any point before 2024
Resolves NO if
Manifold Markets is NOT integrated into Twitter by 12:00 AM EST Jan 1, 2024
For now, the definition for "Twitter integration of Manifold Markets":
MM users must be able to create new questions, place bets, and see embedded prediction markets in tweets.
This definition I've come up with is open to change. I don't know what kind of hard criteria we'd collectively want for the definition, but I figure those three elements are sufficient or possibly too strict. Let me know if you think it should change!
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I think the reason why the % is so low is that even if Twitter decides that prediction markets are cool, they'll likely build their own version, rather than funneling traffic to a site they have no control over
Prediction markets aren't hard to build and an in-house version would integrate better with the existing site
MVP is the minimum viable product, its the simplest, hackiest thing you can build that still just about solves the problem, in this case, integrating Manifold into twitter.
MVPs are more popular in software engineering than e.g. civil engineering because it is easier to copy and paste code files than to copy and paste a physical bridge.
@AgenticLondoner makes sense! ty for explanation
to answer your original question; I still don't know where I'd start with these things because I'm not a software engineer :P
I really was only inspired to make this post off of a single thread of tweets talking about the topic, and wanted to cast out the line to see what others thought about it without that context